Throughout this preview, you’ll see references to the American Conference’s old abbreviation, AAC, when referring to events that occurred prior to this summer’s rebranding. Out of respect for the league’s intention to move in a new direction, I’ll cease doing so once it no longer makes sense.
I do question the tangible value of the rebrand. But in fairness to the league, it is in a tough spot when it comes to its place in the larger college football ecosphere. Despite being the most successful G5 conference in the country when it comes participation in New Year’s Six bowl games since they became a thing in 2014, no conference has been poached more heavily for its valuable assets than the American Conference.
It is almost as if the league is in its own arena – too big and successful to be the breeding ground for programs looking to make the jump to FBS, but too small and without enough historical power to ever earn the rights that the P4 conferences enjoy.
Playoff berths can change that, but likely only temporary. And it’s anyone’s guess as to when the next onslaught of conference realignment may occur (shame on you if you thought it was over – you know better). As a result, the American Conference plays the role of perpetual underdog. And for that reason, this is one of my favorite leagues to cover.
Embed from Getty ImagesTeams I Like
Memphis
The Tigers finished the 2024 campaign with 11 victories, only the second time in school history that they have won at least that many games. However, many goals were left unfilled – namely, an AAC title and a CFP berth. While Memphis loses its four-year starting quarterback and a number of skill position players on the offensive end, the team is still in solid position to make good on those goals and is a favorite in the conference to do so.
The loss of Seth Henigan is big, but I like the pickup of Brendon Lewis from Nevada and actually think that Lewis may be more adaptable in certain situations than Henigan was able to be. Statistically the defense was solid last season, but in its two losses Memphis gave up 100 points, just 73 points fewer than it allowed in all 11 other games combined! The schedule sets up nicely, with all of the toughest games being at home at the Liberty Bowl. If Lewis is indeed a solid replacement for Henigan at quarterback, the Tigers should put themselves in position for that conference title that eluded them last season.
South Florida
I liked the Bulls heading into last season as well, but injuries and a tough early schedule derailed any momentum that could be built and by midseason South Florida was already looking up at the conference leaders. This season star quarterback Byrum Brown comes back healthy and if he gets injured, has an experienced backup in Bryce Archie who got valuable playing time last year in Brown’s absence. The Bulls are a senior laden team and have a lot of experience in key areas, namely the offensive line and in the middle of the defense.
Like 2024, the early schedule is extremely difficult, with Boise State to kick off the season followed by in-state road trips to Florida and Miami. Results in these non-conference games shouldn’t really be overanalyzed, so long as the team remains healthy coming out of them. Those games will be valuable, though, in preparing the Bulls for its similarly difficult conference schedule, which sees Alex Golesh’s squad facing nearly all of the expected contenders in the American. South Florida will have to earn its way to a conference title game, but has the personnel in place to do it.
UTSA
Jeff Traylor has done a nice job guiding this team from Conference USA to the more difficult American Conference, but has yet to lead the program to a conference title game in its current league. That may change this season, as the Roadrunners appear to have one of the most potent offensive units in the country and will be comfortable engaging in track meets. The defense is a bit of a question mark, but mostly because of the number of new faces. Defensive coordinator Jess Loepp has been with the program for the better part of five years and may mold a surprisingly stout unit with the talent at his expense.
Like many of the teams from the American, UTSA faces a tough non-conference schedule that might put blemishes on the record and ultimately prevent the Roadrunners from being a serious threat to grab the automatic G5 playoff spot. However, the conference slate does set up nicely. Most of its toughest games in league are near the end of the year, where the Roadrunners have typically performed very well under Traylor (16-3 in games in November). The team may slowly but surely claw its way back to relevance, but no one in San Antonio will be complaining if it ultimately results in a chance to win the American Conference for the first time.
Embed from Getty ImagesNot High On
Rice
The Owls were only 4-8 this year, but I am not confident that things will get much better in year one under new head coach Scott Abell. The former Davidson head coach brings his offensive coordinator from the school with him and will look to implement an option offense in Houston. I have never been a huge fan of this approach at the FBS level outside of the service academies, as the system requires a level of discipline that can be tough to achieve, especially in the NIL era where there is often a lack of continuity on the roster from year to year. However, Rice does appear to have the right personnel to run the offense at the quarterback position.
Even if the system does work as intended, the Owls were thrown perhaps the most difficult schedule in the American, with trips to Navy, UTSA and South Florida to pair with home dates against Memphis and North Texas. Rice will be looking to neutralize potent offenses in all five of those cases, so it will be imperative that the option system is successful, otherwise it could be a long season with the defense on the field too much to be competitive.
Tulane
The 2025 season will either be a disappointing one for the Green Wave, or a testament to Jon Sumrall being one of the best coaches in the conference. For the second season in a row, Tulane must replace a number of key contributors to offensive success, though this time around I don’t know if the personnel is there to fill the gaps as well as the 2024 team did. That being said, Sumrall’s expertise as a defensive guy may need to come into play to keep Tulane competitive in games against teams like Mississippi, UTSA and Memphis that have powerful offensive units.
It is a big ask, as Sumrall will be working with a lot of new pieces on the defensive side as well. Tulane has earned the right to be mentioned in the conference title conversation on an annual basis, but this rebuild job looks like a lot. I don’t think that the Green Wave will be a bad team in 2025, but may not have quite the firepower to make it back to the American title game, which is surely the expectation from this group internally.
Embed from Getty ImagesPlayers To Watch
Blake Norvath, Navy quarterback
The 6’2”, 200 pound senior was the most well-rounded quarterback that the Midshipmen have had in the past 15 years, pairing 1,246 rushing yards with 1,353 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns, which tied a single-season record at Navy. Horvath’s ability to beat defenses with his arm was a main reason why the Midshipmen were one of the biggest surprises of the season through the first half of 2024.
This year there will be no secret about Horvath’s ability, but Navy is well-stocked at receiver and continue to have plenty of options in the run game. Similar production should be expected from Horvath this season, which should give Navy a fighter’s chance at contending for the American crown in 2025.
Mac Harris, South Florida linebacker
Harris is the leader of the South Florida defense, which should be particularly strong at the second level this season. He was a do-it-all talent in 2024, leading the team in tackles, sacks and quarterback hurries, and will be relied upon again to be an ever-present force.
The senior started all 13 games for the Bulls last season and is one of the most experienced players in the conference. He is a versatile piece that can be effective in coverage or in blitz packages, and thanks to that ability is often close to the ball.
Owen McCown, UTSA quarterback
McCown is the American’s leading returning passer and made big strides as a pocket quarterback last season. While he possesses good mobility and can also hurt you with his legs, he relied on that ability far less last season than in his limited work in 2023 and should be one of the most poised pocket passers in the conference this season.
The son of former NFL quarterback Josh McCown has good lineage and has clearly been keeping his ears open in order to improve his play throughout his collegiate career. I expect a banner year from him and that is one of the main reasons why I am high on the Roadrunners as a whole.
Jalen Kitna, UAB quarterback
Another former pro’s son (Jon), Kitna has had a complicated collegiate career but settled into being the guy at UAB nicely last season. He is still learning the finer points of the quarterback position, but has all the physical tools you need to be great at it and should take a big step forward in 2025.
Kitna’s head coach is former Super Bowl champion Trent Dilfer, who went on record earlier this summer to claim that his quarterback is better than he was at any level of the game. That is high praise, and I expect that the younger Kitna will have a breakout year this season.
Embed from Getty ImagesGames to Watch (Conference)
South Florida at North Texas (October 10)
This Friday night matchup under the Texas lights feels like a must win for two teams that will be looking to make a push for a conference title. Both should be improved in areas where they struggled at times in 2024 (South Florida offensively, North Texas offensively) but can’t drop games like this that feel winnable for each side.
Army at Tulane (October 18)
This feels like an opportunity for revenge for the Green Wave, which were denied an AAC title last season by the Black Knights in Army’s inaugural campaign as a member of the conference. Jeff Monken’s team loses some dudes on the offensive side, but always seem prepared to handle personnel losses under their current head coach.
UTSA at North Texas (October 18)
This game has the potential to be a proper shootout, as both sides could lay claim to the title of most potent offense in the conference. It is reasonable to assert that this is UTSA’s first or second most difficult conference road game and North Texas’s most difficult home game.
Tulane at UTSA (October 30)
This matchup takes place on a Thursday night, so there will be less competition for eyeballs. It should be one of the most important matchups in deciding the American Conference title game participants, as both teams are expected to fight for a place in that game.
Tulane at Memphis (November 7)
The Tigers’ conference schedule starts to ramp up near the end of October, with this one potentially being the biggest of them all. It is worth noting that Memphis plays back-to-back Friday night contests, with the one before this being a date with a Rice squad that will be pretty physical (intending to run an option variation this season).
Navy at Memphis (November 27)
Not only did Navy effectively end Memphis’s CFP hopes last season, but the loss to the Midshipmen also helped ensure that the Tigers missed out entirely on the AAC title game. As a result this qualifies for a revenge game for Memphis, a team that once again has its sights set on a G5 bid to the Playoff.
Embed from Getty ImagesGames to Watch (Non-Conference)
East Carolina at North Carolina State (August 28)
These two in-state “rivals” played each other in last year’s Liberty Bowl, and say what you want about some bowl games not mattering, but a brawl broke out between the two teams in that game. East Carolina beat big brother last December, and you better believe they’re living in the Wolfpack’s collective mind rent free leading up to this season opener.
Boise State at South Florida (August 28)
The Broncos have a challenging non-conference schedule this season, starting with the season opener against the Bulls in Tampa. If Boise State wants to make it back to the Playoff, it cannot afford to lose this game, but Alex Golesh teams are physical and will make you earn every yard and stop defensively.
Arkansas at Memphis (September 20)
Like last year, Memphis’s schedule features a P4 program that serves as something of a litmus test to determine whether the Tigers are truly Playoff candidates. While Arkansas isn’t expected to be as good as Florida State was projected to be last season, the Razorbacks figure to be better than the Seminoles actually ended up being. In simpler terms, this won’t be an easy game for Memphis.
Embed from Getty ImagesAw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
Memphis Makes College Football Playoff (+800)
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again? This was a popular bet to make last season, and despite Seth Henigan’s presence driving that to some extent, the loss of their four-year starting quarterback doesn’t seem to be altering the Tigers’ chances of making good on it in 2025.
South Florida Makes Conference Title Game (+300)
If I am high on South Florida every year, at some point they’ll make me look good. An injury to Byrum Brown last season really affected the Bulls last season, but if Brown can stay healthy then South Florida will compete for the American Conference title.
The team around Brown appears to be even better this season.
East Carolina Under 6.5 (-150)
The season-by-season results may look like a yo-yo for the Pirates after this season, which wouldn’t be all that surprising given the tumultuous situation the program has endured with its head coaching position.
There are a lot of bodies to replace from a team that got to eight wins somewhat luckily last season, and the schedule does not set up well for much more than bowl eligibility by the skin of their teeth.
Embed from Getty ImagesPredictions
- Memphis (10-2, [7-1])
- UTSA (9-3, [6-2])
- North Texas (9-3, [5-3])
- Army (6-6, [5-3])
- Tulane (8-4, [5-3])
- East Carolina (7-5, [5-3])
- Navy (8-4, [5-3])
- South Florida (6-6, [5-3])
- Florida Atlantic (4-8, [3-5])
- UAB (5-7, [3-5])
- Charlotte (4-8, [3-5])
- Temple (4-8, [2-6])
- Rice (3-9, [2-6])
- Tulsa (1-11, [0-8])
Conference Title Game
UTSA at Memphis
Champion: UTSA
