2026 FIFA World Cup: Group D Preview

When the groups were officially announced last December, many supporters in the United States breathed a collective sigh of relief. The path to the knockout stage looked manageable, with a quartet of teams featuring two that the Americans would be favored to beat.

Fast forward almost seven months, and the level of anxiousness has begun to ramp up in the host country. The reality is, no match outcome is a guarantee, and some recent results from the USMNT ultimately has brought up more questions than answers about the squad.

The truth is, the United States isn’t the favorite in this group but will be treated like one by its own media. The results of the matches being played within  this group might not be the most high scoring, but without a minnow and without a powerhouse, it figures to be one of the more closely contested groups in the entire tournament.

The Teams

Australia

Best Case Scenario

The Socceroos have been handed a tough draw, but a similar situation didn’t stop Australia from surprisingly getting out of the group stage in Qatar. There is a nice balance of experience and youth on the squad, led by goalkeeper Mathew Ryan and midfielder Jackson Irvine, whose appearance is hard to mistake and unapologetically Aussie. The quick ascension of 20-year-old forward Nestory Irankunda gives this squad a chance to be more proactive on the offensive end.

Ryan has been known to stand on his head in big moments and the team’s philosophy will be defensively oriented thanks to manager Tony Popovic, who was part of the first Australia squad to qualify for a knockout round in a World Cup, in 2006. They’ll be tough to get a result against, and are clinical enough in the attacking end to capture their first ever knockout round victory.

Realistic Expectation

It’s often not a great sign when your goalkeeper is your most recognizable player, but Australia is a squad that understands its identity and welcomes opposing squads to try to break them down. The Socceroos can be expected to play the long game in the group stage, strategically setting themselves up with an opportunity to move on by the time matchday three rolls around.

It’s likely that punches will be swapped amongst the four teams in this group, and Australia won’t be bothered by an amount of physicality. This isn’t a roster that will wow you with beautiful football, but it’s one that should be right in the mix for a spot in the round of 32.

Paraguay

Best Case Scenario

As the United States’ first opponent, La Albirroja has the chance to send a message that will be heard by the entire tournament, an opportunity that this squad will likely take for both practical and personal reasons. This isn’t a golden generation for Paraguay, but the South Americans can play and won’t be the least bit intimidated by its groupmates.

There is technical capability up front and in the midfield, notably Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón, who many Americans will be familiar with thanks to their time in the Premier League and MLS. Taking points off of the United States and besting Australia aren’t fantastical predictions, and would almost surely be enough for Paraguay to find its way into the knockout stage.

Realistic Expectation

Facing a talent deficit against both the United States and Turkey, it will be important that Paraguay maintain its cool and not put itself in an even more disadvantaged position in any of the group stage matches. South American football is played differently, and these players won’t be afraid to get scrappy early to try to set a tone.

There will be a fine line that Gustavo Alfaro’s squad will need to walk in order to take chances to overcome its shortcomings without sacrificing too much. This is the underdog of the group, but not one to take lightly.

Türkiye

Best Case Scenario

It became evident when Türkiye went toe to toe with the Netherlands in the quarterfinals of the last EUROs that Ay-Yıldızlılar was bound for bright days ahead with a young and energetic group coming into form. Though it took qualification playoffs for the nation to book its spot at this World Cup, anyone that has been following this team’s ascendence knows not to hold that against this squad.

Türkiye has one of the more dangerous attacking fronts in the tournament, with young stars Arda Güler and Kerem Aktürkoğlu leading the way there. If the defense can do its part, this is the team to beat in Group D. Interestingly, the last time Türkiye played in a World Cup was in 2002, where it came away with a third-place finish. A 2-2 draw with Spain in qualification suggests that this squad can play with anyone.

Realistic Expectation

Sometimes youth is great, as young players often don’t have the experience to know what to fear. At the same time, how will this squad respond if it goes down early against the likes of, say, Australia, a squad it should beat on talent alone but that understands how to protect a slim lead?

The impact of experience (or lack thereof) and defensive execution will ultimately define whether this team makes a deep run in the tournament or has trouble making it out of the group stage. Expect something in between those two scenarios as a realistic prediction. Either way, Türkiye figures to be fun if you like teams that create lots of goal scoring chances.

United States

Best Case Scenario

This prediction is the most popular of the bunch leading up to the tournament that the Americans joint host. While it is cliché to suggest this is a moment that has been in the making since 1994, the reality is that the United States learned a lot about where it stood (and where it needed to improve) after hosting its first World Cup over three decades ago.

On paper, things look promising. The golden generation is being fully utilized. The roster, for the first time in history, is comprised entirely of players competing in the first division of the countries where they compete at the club level. The strategy is being dictated by a highly regarded manager in Mauricio Pochettino, who needs no introduction in soccer circles. Putting it all together is the last, albeit toughest part, but there are valid reasons why this team has expectations being placed upon it that exceed where the country has been before in a modern World Cup.

Realistic Expectation

For a sport that still seems to be polarizing for much of the country, American supporters are often unnecessarily critical of their national team. While there has been leaps and bounds of progress since 1994, the reality is that the United States is still missing some elements that separate the best in the world at the beautiful game from the rest of the globe.

Group D is manageable and getting out of it shouldn’t be the baseline expectation of this squad. Offensively the United States can overwhelm a Paraguay squad, and have the technical capability to break down an Australia squad that knows a point would be huge in that spot. If things go their way in those two matches, then the tilt with Türkiye should be fun. There is enough talent to win at least one match in the knockout rounds, and from there, opposition will play a big role in deciding what makes sense.

Matches to Watch

United States vs. Paraguay (June 12 – 9 PM ET)

Perhaps the most anticipated USMNT match in history will take place on Friday evening at SoFi Stadium. The Yanks will need to maintain discipline to avoid outside noise and a pesky Paraguay side from dictating the result.

Paraguay vs. Australia (June 25 – 10 PM ET)

Goals may be hard to come by for both sides in their other two group stage matches, but we may see a tactical diversion from one or both in this tilt if a victory is necessary to ensure advancement.

Predictions (Bold Advance to Knockout Stage)

1. Türkiye

2. United States

3. Australia

4. Paraguay