2026 NCAAF: Week 3 Preview

I’m always on the lookout for where my predictions can be treated as a “Kiss of Death” down the line.

Although it has only been a few weeks, it is starting to look like the statement that the Big Ten has claimed the title of “best conference in college football” could fit the description.

Even ignoring Ohio State’s second half collapse against Texas last weekend doesn’t totally remove the Big Ten from the spotlight. Oregon’s massive defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State is the poster child, but comes on the heels of lackluster performances in Week 1 by Michigan and Rutgers that also attracted headlines. The head-to-head battle between the Big Ten and SEC so far favors the latter overall, with Michigan’s victory over Oklahoma being countered by a battering of Minnesota at the hands of Mississippi State to accompany last weekend’s showdown in Austin.

Put simply: top to bottom, it doesn’t feel like the Big Ten is as strong as originally thought.

There is plenty of time to right the ship, but it’s an understatement to say that there won’t be any significant bow alignment happening this weekend. Looking at its slate, the Big Ten figurately takes the upcoming week off.

As a result, we’ll shift our attention elsewhere to identify the best action that Week 3 has to offer.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend

#22 Houston at #13 Texas Tech (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)

The Red Raiders soundly beat the Cougars in all facets of last year’s contest, a game which Houston was without starting quarterback Connor Weigman for the second half. By that time it was already clear that Willie Fritz’s squad was going to have an uphill battle, though. This year things look like they could be a lot closer despite the game being played at the home of the Red Raiders. Things should be decided in the trenches, an area that Houston looks very strong thus far in 2026.

For the sake of comparison the two teams have a shared opponent in Oregon State, a squad that gave both the Red Raiders and Cougars more than expected. Neither could stop the Beavers’ passing attack, both did well against a limited rushing attack but where Houston appeared more capable, surprisingly, was on the offensive end. If Weigman stays healthy in this game, Houston appears to have things rolling offensively, particularly in the run game. I shared my thoughts preseason about Texas Tech’s potential to “come back” towards the rest of the Big 12 this season and this game feels like the best opportunity so far to evaluate that accuracy of that prediction. Going on the road to take down the defending conference champion is a tall task, but Houston should at least keep things very close in this one.

My Pick: 31-28 Texas Tech (does not cover -8.5 spread)

#16 SMU at #23 Louisville (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN2)

Thanks to the days that they played on and the intriguing nature of the matchups, most of the country had a good opportunity to evaluate the Mustangs and Cardinals relatively uninterrupted during Week 1. SMU’s explosion of offense against Florida State was impressive while unsurprising, given a healthy Kevin Jennings and his arsenal of weapons on the outside. Rhett Lashlee’s team currently leads the country with 442 passing YPG. Louisville’s effort in Nashville against Mississippi was more surprising, and in a positive way to Cards fans. I was impressed with the play of quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who looked like a totally different player than the one that served as a backup at Ohio State the past three seasons. It appears they have a true leader at quarterback and that the Brohm brothers have quickly tapped into the best that Kienholz has to offer.

Jeff Brohm almost always has Louisville prepared to play well against its toughest competition, and it should be a similar case on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals can neutralize the SMU offense by playing keepaway, utilizing Kienholz as a runner in addition to their deep running back stable to move the chains on the ground. Kienholz has shown the ability to then take advantage when things have softened over the top. The Mustangs will score some points, but this appears to be a great spot for the Cardinals to notch a victory that could be huge in terms of the ACC title race. Louisville has proven to be a difficult place to play, and while SMU has beaten the Cardinals both times since joining the ACC, the offense appears to be more dynamic than it has been the past couple of seasons thanks to the versatility and maturity of Kienholz.

My Pick: 37-34 Louisville (covers -2.5 spread)

Florida at Auburn (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)

What was once an annual affair in the SEC has become a seldomly played rivalry matchup, with Florida and Auburn playing just four times since 2003. It has been almost as long since either program was a perennial contender in the conference or nationally, but this game does represent an opportunity for the winner to start the year 3-0. Former American Conference foes Jon Sumrall (Tulane) and Alex Golesh (South Florida) are back in the SEC for the first time as head coaches and their inaugural meeting as such appears that it will be hotly contested.

The tandem of former Georgia Tech personnel, offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and quarterback Aaron Philo, has worked out well for the Gators thus far. Philo looks great and Florida’s offense looks both potent and balanced through two games. The competition steps up significantly this week, however, and I do expect that Florida will need to rely more on the run game and Jaden Baugh to have sustained success against Auburn’s defense. On the other side, the Tigers have looked similarly potent offensively but have been somewhat loose with the football, turning the ball over three times in the season opener against Baylor. It’s part of what you get with Byrum Brown at quarterback, but to really be a factor this season the Tigers need to shore up this area. With seemingly little to separate the two sides, I think that this game comes down to the turnovers, with Auburn having a slight edge if it can win that stat column.

My Pick: 31-27 Auburn (covers +2.5 spread)

#7 LSU at #8 Mississippi (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

One of the most anticipated games of the season – Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford – has been marked on the calendars of football fans and troll trackers alike since the SEC schedule was released just a couple of weeks after Kiffin announced his departure from Mississippi last year. The current LSU head man made his presence in Baton Rouge known Week 1 by dismantling Clemson but faces a different kind of challenge entirely this weekend. Mississippi is, first and foremost, a much better team offensively than Clemson. This matchup also figures to be incredibly important to the SEC title race. But the desire to win goes far beyond the players on the field and related stakes. An entire stadium, fan base and arguably even conference would love to see Kiffin put in his place this weekend by Pete Golding and the rest of the Rebels.

What is being heavily marketed as a battle between two Heisman Trophy contending quarterbacks may ultimately be a competition decided by which one takes better care of the football. LSU is currently amongst the top five in the country in passing yards per game, but Sam Leavitt has thrown more picks (4) than touchdowns (2) through the first two games this season. Trinidad Chambliss currently has a better TD-to-INT ratio at 5-1, but there were several instances in Mississippi’s opener against Louisville where Chambliss was not at his best (including a fumble in the first half). Chambliss is the more accomplished late-game operator compared with Leavitt, but there are also few offensive minds that understand Chambliss’s strength/weakness matrix better than Kiffin and LSU offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. I think that signal-callers will have their hiccups in this game, but if Chambliss is in a position to lead another game-deciding drive late, LSU is uniquely qualified in understanding how to prevent it. The Rebels also have yet to prove that their defensive secondary isn’t going to be a surprising weak spot this season.

My Pick: 38-31 LSU (covers -2.5 spread)

West Virginia vs. #25 Virginia [game in Charlotte, NC] (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ACC Network)

While a neutral site for both teams, there is an expectation that both fan bases will show up for the Duke’s Mayo Classic, creating a truly split atmosphere in Charlotte on Saturday night. The Mountaineers have jumped out to a 2-0 start for the first time since 2018 but will need to put together a complete 60 minutes of football to upset the Cavaliers. Virginia has essentially picked up where it left off last season, blowing out its first two opponents and looking very well put together on both sides of the ball. I like the talent that Rich Rodriguez has put together at West Virginia this season, though the Cavaliers have essentially already made me look foolish predicting them to finish .500.

The Mountaineers are heavily reliant on the run game offensively and will look to utilize creativity to surprise a Virginia defense that has been tough to move the ball on via any method this season. Michael Hawkins Jr. is dangerous at quarterback and currently leads the team in rushing yards, despite West Virginia featuring a stud at running back in Cam Cook (who, to his credit, trails Hawkins by just five rushing yards). I do think that the Mountaineers will be a bigger handful for Virginia’s defense than its previous two opponents. However, Beau Pribula is a more versatile dual threat than Hawkins and should not only have room to run against West Virginia’s defense, but throw as well. I expect the Mountaineers to hang around in this game for all four quarters, but possible inconsistency combined with Virginia’s ability to do more through the air if needed makes it tough to call for an outright upset in this one.

My Pick: 31-23 Virginia (does not cover -10.5 spread)

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend

North Carolina at Clemson (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)

The Tigers turned things around defensively in Week 2 following their blowout loss to LSU in the season opener, but questions remain about the Clemson offense. North Carolina will be happy to engage in a defensive battle and could really start to raise some eyebrows if it can take down Dabo Swinney in Death Valley.

Florida State at #10 Alabama (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)

With one loss already on its resume, Florida State runs the risk of becoming an afterthought in the month of September yet again if it cannot produce a competitive performance against the Crimson Tide. The jury appears to still be out on new Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell, giving the Seminoles some hope that it won’t be undone once again by a potent passing attack.

#11 BYU at Colorado State (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – CBS)

The Rams haven’t left Fort Collins yet this season and will welcome a confident Cougars squad into Canvas Stadium on Saturday evening. Jim Mora Jr. has quickly transformed this offense, has an exciting dual threat option at quarterback in Hauss Hejny and will look to shock a BYU team that will be making its first road trip of 2026.

Virginia Tech at Maryland (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – FS1)

James Franklin returns to Big Ten grounds to take on a Maryland squad that currently leads the Big Ten in total offense and defense through two games. Despite the schedule having a lot to do with that, the Terrapins appear much improved defensively this season and should be a real test for Franklin, Ethan Grunkemeyer & Co.

James Madison at San Diego State (Saturday, 10 PM ET – The CW Network)

The Dukes make the long, cross-country trip to California to take on the Aztecs, the only time this season that James Madison plays West of the Mississippi River. San Diego State’s performance against UCLA last weekend (coincidentally, coached by former James Madison head coach Bob Chesney) suggests that the Dukes won’t be able to run roughshod over the hosts like they did against Wagner last Saturday.