2026 NCAAF: Pac-12 Conference Preview

The Conference of Champions is back!

Well, sort of. Shout out to Oregon State and Washington State – those two proverbially and legally held down the fort while the powers that be scrambled to find a way to keep the flame lit within the two-year grace period that the conference was provided by the NCAA, to ensure at least eight full-member schools were on board.

As it turns out, the approach was pretty straightforward: poach from the Mountain West Conference. Five of the eight programs comprising the Pac-12’s football lineup beginning this season came over from the MWC, with the final member (Texas State) agreeing to move from the Sun Belt. Don’t worry, though, everyone else is fine.

So maybe it’s not the championship caliber that fans of the “original” Pac-12 would qualify as deserving of the league’s nickname. But it’s a start, and for teams like Boise State with a history of excellence wherever it goes, it’s an opportunity to continue building both itself and this unfamiliar league with a familiar name.

Teams I Like

Boise State

The Broncos ended their time in the Mountain West Conference with three straight league titles and will seek to carry that momentum with them as they enter the new chapter within the Pac-12. It was an up-and-down 2025 season by Boise State standards, but the Broncos have a lot to be optimistic about for the upcoming season. Quarterback Maddux Madsen is one of the more experienced quarterbacks in the entire country, has a capable backup in case of injury (as happened last season) and the two headed monster at running back is as strong as any in the conference. Put simply, the offense should be one of if not the best in the Pac-12. Injuries derailed the Broncos’ Playoff hopes last season but out of that experience emerged backup quarterback Max Cutforth. Defensively, the Broncos appear poised to create more havoc in the backfield with the return of Jayden Virgin-Morgan and an improved Max Stege.

The out-of-conference schedule is rough, with trips to Oregon and fellow 2025 conference champion Western Michigan sandwiching a tricky home date with Memphis. The Broncos would need to win two of those three to be considered a real threat to be in position for a CFP bid but can do so. Spencer Danielson’s group could be the most potent it has been offensively since their head coach took over four years ago.

Fresno State

Former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz quickly proved his worth following the acceptance of the Fresno State job, leading the program to nine victories in his first season with the Bulldogs. The team quickly and successfully transitioned to an offensive schematic that favors the run game and this year should feature a quarterback in Khristian Martin who can operate that while also possessing a big arm.

Fresno State’s offensive approach should help it dominate time of possession, keeping a defense that will also be strong fresh. The Bulldogs were historically good defensively by program standards in 2025 and should again be tough on that side of the ball, which figures to be key in a couple of the team’s biggest road tests this season. Playing Boise State at home during the regular season could be huge in terms of deciding homefield advantage for the conference title game, and the Bulldogs appear to have the best shot of anyone at preventing the Broncos from establishing dominance early in the new look Pac-12.

Texas State

I have been high on the Bobcats in the past, so much so that I have suggested they could be a legitimate Playoff contender, but thus far it has been a lot of smoke from the Bobcats under fourth-year head coach G.J. Kinne. Let’s be clear – I mean that in the most respectful way – as I am generally a fan of what Kinne has been able to do in San Marcos. He has put together three consecutive winning seasons, of which the program had just one prior at the FBS level prior to his arrival, and is undefeated in three bowl games. The Bobcats have been exciting on paper in the past under Kinne, and now just need to put everything together on the field.

Once again they are poised to be explosive offensively, with Brad Jackson at quarterback representing one of the most prolific players in the conference. The Bobcats can take the next step via improvements on the defensive side, where new coordinator Will Windham will seek to shore up the issues that Texas State has experienced in prior years. Last season, four of the team’s six losses came by six points or fewer. In those four losses, the Bobcats allowed at least 31 points in each of them and at least 40 points in three of them. Both of Windham’s defenses at South Alabama ranked in the top half of the Sun Belt and he has some returning talent to work with, particularly at linebacker. Even if the defense is still shaky, the Bobcats will be a fun team to watch for fans who enjoy touchdowns.

Not High On

Washington State

Kirby Moore has officially joined the family business, joining brother Kellen in becoming a head coach. Their dad, Tom, is a legendary coaching figure in the high school ranks in their home state of Washington. The youngest Moore played at Boise State around the same time his brother was racking up victories as quarterback, and therefore I hope that he is able to do well with this program. But in year one, I have my concerns. This is the third year in a row that the Cougars are shifting gears at the head coaching spot, which makes it incredibly hard to build any lasting momentum at a program, especially in the NIL era. Moore did a nice job as the offensive coordinator the previous three seasons at Missouri, but there is a clearly defined culture there under Eli Drinkwitz and Moore didn’t pull many guys with him out to Washington State.

Moore’s pieces on the offense should afford him a decent chance at being successful with an offensive style similar to what was deployed at Missouri, but there are some question marks at each level of the defense and so the offense may be required to be incredibly efficient for Washington State to win football games. The schedule provides a potentially rude awakening for the first-year head coach, with three P4 squads in the team’s first four games. Moore should be given at least a couple of years to build the program as he wants, but another winning record amidst difficult circumstances seems quite unlikely for the Cougars.

Players To Watch

Dylan Riley & Sire Gaines, Boise State running backs

In 2025, Boise State had the unenviable task of trying to replace the production of Ashton Jeanty, which on its face seemed like almost an impossibility. However, the Broncos opted to do so via a three-headed monster at running back and actually came pretty close to replicating Jeanty’s production. The top two performers from that monster are back again this season in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, who deserve a joint mention in this section for their work and inseparability (more on this next).

Affectionately known as Thunder and Lightning, Riley and Gaines are not as successful apart as they are together. The Lightning is Riley, who with his blazing speed led the team with 1,125 rushing yards last season and adds an element to the passing game as well. The Thunder is Gaines, who at 5’10”, 210 pounds is an imposing force that brings to mind Boise State running backs of past that have helped make the Broncos incredibly difficult to stop on third and short situations. Between the two, Boise State returns 356 carries, 1,936 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. Now can you understand why fans in Boise aren’t still clutching a picture of Ashton Jeanty as they cry themselves to sleep at night?

Lucky Sutton, San Diego State running back

The Mountain West was full of talented rushers last season and tops amongst them was Sutton, who compiled 1,297 yards in 2025 while proving to be a true workhorse, with 56 more carries than the next closest player in the conference. Sutton thrives in Sean Lewis’s offense, which seeks depth at the running back position while simultaneously producing a frontrunner in terms of carries. At 6’1”, 225 pounds, he can handle the workload as well as the beating that he takes from getting so many opportunities to carry the ball.

Sutton came into last season without much fanfare, but ended it as a Doak Walker Award semifinalist, one of three players from a G6 school to make it that far in the award process. He is the only one to stick with such a program for the 2026 season, and while it’s easy to name him the best running back outside of the P4, that distinction isn’t necessary or a proper summation of his talents. He is one of the best backs in the country bar none and should again contend for the Doak Walker this season.

Brad Jackson, Texas State quarterback

It’s not a surprise that Jackson flourishes under G.J. Kinne – the current Texas State quarterback plays a lot like his head coach did. A dual threat option at quarterback, Jackson had a breakout redshirt freshman season in 2025, throwing for over 3,200 yards and rushing for another 744. His total offense accounted for placed him sixth in the country, and these were not statistics put up in garbage time. The Bobcats needed Jackson to perform this way to win or stay competitive in the majority of their games last season.

As a freshman Jackson exhibited rare decision making capabilities for someone of his experience level, leading the Sun Belt with a 71.3 percent passing completion rate. With two returning 1,000 yard receivers to throw to and a deep running back room, there are playmakers all over the Texas State offense that Jackson has proven he knows how to enable. I expect that Jackson continues his ascendence and is one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the country yet again in 2026. His head coach was the Conference USA Player of the Year 16 seasons ago; could Jackson do something similar in his first year as a Pac-12 player?

Mel Brown, Colorado State running back

Jim Mora Jr. left Connecticut following last season and took much of the talent with him, including what may be his next star running back in Brown. At 5’9”, 180 pounds, you may think Brown would be reserved for a gadget type role in the offense but exhibits more power than his smaller frame would suggest and can break tackles. Of course, the explosiveness and ability to stretch the field is there as well and his capability of creating mismatches in the passing game makes him a versatile option for Mora’s offense.

In addition to his running back duties, Brown has been a kick returner throughout his collegiate career and figures to continue that at Colorado State. Typically, Mora’s teams are characterized by a deep running back corps and that should again happen this season. Brown is the most likely candidate to assume the role of lead back that Mora may seek to replace with Cam Edwards choosing to transfer to East Lansing instead of joining his former coach in Fort Collins.

Games to Watch (Conference)

Texas State at San Diego State (October 3)

The Aztecs were one of the best defenses in the Mountain West last season, but lose a ton of personnel from it (including the coordinator) and will need to rely more on the offense to win games this season. Texas State will be happy to oblige in what could be a shootout.

Boise State at Fresno State (October 10)

One of the regular matchups from the Mountain West that would often decide who wins a title resumes in the new look Pac-12. Fresno State is establishing a new culture quickly under Matt Entz, and one that could create a permanent thorn in Boise State’s side at that.

Fresno State at San Diego State (October 17)

The Bulldogs were shut out by the Aztecs last season, but that’s unlikely to happen again with Fresno State figuring to be better offensively and San Diego State less dominant defensively in 2026.

Boise State at Washington State (October 24)

Kirby Moore welcomes his alma mater to Pullman in late October, amidst a brutal six game stretch where the Cougars must start with a P4 opponent (Arizona), play three road games and two of the Pac-12 favorites in Fresno State and the Broncos. This is the fifth game of that string and Boise State comes off of a bye to visit.

Texas State at Boise State (October 31)

It’s still early enough in the year to suggest that the weather is unlikely to prevent this game from being an electric, high scoring affair. Any later and you would have to wonder whether the boys from San Marcos, Texas would be receiving a rude awakening by playing outdoors in Idaho.

San Diego State at Boise State (November 21)

The in-conference finale for each team may prove to be a massive one, with San Diego State facing a favorable schedule that sees it hosting all the Pac-12 favorites this season with the exception of the Broncos. The Aztecs may be in a situation to clinch a title game spot here, but will have to prove their belonging.

Games to Watch (Non-Conference)

Fresno State at Southern Cal (September 4)

Presumably the more difficult of Southern Cal’s in-state tuneup games. A mind trick of sorts to think about this being a Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup where the Trojans aren’t the ones representing the Conference of Champions.

Boise State at Oregon (September 5)

The Broncos will enter this one as massive underdogs but played a similar role when the two met in Eugene two seasons ago and nearly knocked off the Ducks. That performance was a sign of things to come, as Boise State made the Playoff in 2024.

Memphis at Boise State (September 12)

The Tigers have already taken care of business once out West this season, and a victory on the blue turf will signal to the rest of the country that Memphis is a true contender for the G6’s auto-bid to the College Football Playoff. Boise State’s defense could have trouble containing Marcus Stokes.

Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)

*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!

Boise State Makes College Football Playoff (+450)

The Broncos are by a healthy margin the odds-on favorites to capture the automatic bid presented to the top G6 conference champion. If you believe, the time to act on it is in the preseason, before Boise State has a chance to play (and potentially beat) two other G6 title contenders in the non-conference schedule.

San Diego State Makes Pac-12 Championship Game (+150)

Head coach Sean Lewis has been a quick riser up the ranks within the FBS coaching circle and has the Aztecs program in great position to vie for its first conference title in 10 years. If he is able to do so, San Diego State may be looking for a new coach after this season.

Washington State Under 4.5 Wins (+130)

Kirby Moore was bound to have his hands full as a first-year head coach, but was handed one of the more complex rebuilding jobs in the country with Washington State turning over the post three times in as many years. The schedule is unforgiving and is unlikely to accurately reflect any progress that Moore does make in 2026.

Predictions

1. Boise State (11-1, [7-0])
2. Texas State (7-5, [5-2])
3. Fresno State (8-4, [5-2])
4. San Diego State (8-4, [5-2])
5. Colorado State (4-8, [2-5])
6. Utah State (4-8, [2-5])
7. Washington State (4-8, [2-5])
8. Oregon State (2-10, [0-7])

Conference Title Game

Texas State at Boise State

Champion: Boise State