2026 NCAAF: Big 12 Conference Preview

Prior to the offseason leading into the 2025 campaign, it felt like the Big 12 needed a lifeline.

Cody Campbell stepped in and provided it.

While the process began several years earlier, it wasn’t until right before the 2025 season that Campbell announced he was the driving force behind an astounding $63.3 million raised for Texas Tech athletics. Campbell and his group were aiming to compete with the big dogs of the revenue sports in collegiate athletics, of which most resided in other conferences. It aligned with Texas Tech football’s offseason moves, with a number of notable transfers opting to sign on with a program located in the South Plains of the state previously regarded as an afterthought.

The Red Raiders went on to enjoy an 11-1 regular season, claimed its first Big 12 title and were one of the most stifling defenses (thanks to those aforementioned transfers) in the country before bowing out to Oregon in the CFP.

It was an announcement that Texas Tech is here to play, but more importantly, that the Big 12 is interested in maintaining a say in what goes on at the highest level of college football. Before Campbell and following the loss of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, one had to wonder.

Teams I Like

Texas Tech

In 2025 the Red Raiders somewhat quietly assembled a squad full of future NFL draft picks thanks to the No. 2 transfer portal class in the country (thanks in large part to the cash influx courtesy of former Texas Tech offensive lineman Cody Campbell). Admittedly, Around The Corn missed the boat on this and the Red Raiders ran through the Big 12 before being humbled by Oregon in the College Football Playoff. We’re not making the same mistake twice. The lessons learned from that squad will be key to defining what is considered success for this season, as Texas Tech is once again poised to be the class of the conference.

Despite missing out on Brenden Sorsby after that messy affair in the offseason, the Red Raiders are returning a healthy crop of talent on the offense. That includes quarterback Will Hammond, who got starting experience last season in relief of an injured Behran Morton. The defense loses a lot, but like sharks’ teeth similar talent is expected to fill the gaps created by the losses of three NFL Draft picks on the line and Butkus Award winning linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Texas Tech avoids a couple of the other league title contenders in the regular season, and the majority of its toughest competition will come to Lubbock. It’s Playoff or bust for this team, and this time, more will be expected assuming it gets there.

BYU

The Cougars began last regular season ranked outside the Top 25 and ended it as the second team left out of the Playoff, suffering defeats to only Texas Tech (regular season and Big 12 title game). This year, BYU avoids the Red Raiders during the regular season and while it faces tough road trips to TCU and Utah for the rivalry game, should have an excellent opportunity to make it back to the Big 12 title game once again (and perhaps get a third try in two years to beat Texas Tech).

While no one will be sleeping on Kilani Sitake’s team in 2026, this squad can handle the added pressure of being a projected contender. Sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier showed week after week just how versatile he was last season and leads a run-oriented offense that may improve upon its productivity with the return of running back LJ Martin and an offensive line with good depth. That coupled with a nasty defense that should again be one of the Big 12’s best provides the framework for the Cougars to reach the double-digit victory mark for the third consecutive season.

Houston

For the second year in a row, I’m bullish on what Willie Fritz is building at Houston. The Cougars proved believers right last season, improving by six wins over 2024 and sending a shot across the bow to other Big 12 foes, signaling that this team is done being an afterthought in the conference. Connor Weigman resurrected his collegiate career here last season and is poised to have an excellent campaign with nearly his entire supporting cast returning, with five players (three transfers) on the offensive line that started for their respective team last season.

The schedule has more jagged edges than in 2025 (trips to Texas Tech, Kansas State and Utah) but Houston is built to withstand that, with transfers brought in to add depth and veteran leadership to key areas such as the running back room and the offensive line. Coach Fritz has a reputation for turning programs around (see his track record at Tulane), and in his third year with Houston appears to have positioned this team to be a true contender for what would be the school’s first P4 conference title.

West Virginia

Rich Rod’s return to Morgantown was not always the easiest, but the inconsistencies of the 2025 season has been replaced with optimism following the hard work that West Virginia did in the portal in the offseason. A team that struggled to find its answer at key positions for the offensive philosophy now appears to have their main man at quarterback (former Oklahoma signal-caller Michael Hawkins) and running back (Cam Cook, previously with Jacksonville State). Though it is the second straight year that Coach Rodriguez will be relying on transfers to fill gaps, it already feels more likely to pay off with those two.

The Mountaineers were hit hard by the injury bug last year and struggled with the physicality of the Big 12 particularly on defense, but have added depth and size on that side of the ball. Additionally, a more forgiving schedule in the early part of the year should keep the team healthier and allow it to build upon the confidence of some expected victories. While this team could still easily go either way in 2026, I like Rich Rod to at minimum get West Virginia back to the postseason and perhaps surprise some opponents with offensive creativity.

Not High On

Utah

Though Kyle Wittingham’s decision to take the Michigan job was a bit of a shock, his departure from Utah was just a matter of time and the Utes did a nice job with succession planning, grooming now head coach Morgan Scalley for the role a couple of years prior. While that is an encouraging sign for this program as it passes the torch, high expectations are the norm in Salt Lake City following Wittingham’s 21-year tenure with the program. Since 2014, the Utes have spent at least some time in the AP poll every season, have recorded double-digit victories five times and won two conference titles.

The fact that Utah is being pegged as a Big 12 title contender again this season is a testament to the resiliency of the program, but I am not seeing it given all the changes. I love Wittingham as a coach and think he will be generally successful at Michigan, but his departure is truthfully the least of my concerns about Utah. The bigger red flags are the gaps that must be filled on both sides of the line, an area where the Utes are typically very solid and this year will be green. On top of that, the back half of the season is treacherous and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Utes drop more than half of those games. A trip to the conference title game seems like a stretch goal.

Iowa State

It’s one thing to lose your coach – it’s another thing entirely to lose half your roster as well. That’s the reality for the Cyclones, which saw players walk out the door in droves (more than 40), many following former head coach Matt Campbell to Happy Valley. This is disappointing for a program that was building continuity under Campbell, who helped deliver the first double-digit win season in school history just two seasons ago.

New head man Jimmy Rogers won’t be intimidated by the task, as he dealt with something very similar last season at Washington State and guided the Cougars to a bowl game before taking this job. The Cougars’ situation was vastly different than Iowa State’s, however, as Rogers will be working with a nearly entirely new roster in a P4 conference this time around. With so many new faces, it would be an achievement if Iowa State simply managed to stay out of the Big 12 cellar this season.

Players To Watch

Bear Bachmeier, BYU quarterback

Much of my hesitation in jumping on the BYU bandwagon last year had to do with a lack of belief in Bachmeier, the true freshman quarterback that slotted into the starting role for BYU after Jake Retzlaff left the team just a couple of months before the season began. Waiting on him to come back to earth made me look like a fool for weeks on end, as it didn’t really happen with the exception of the two times the Cougars faced Texas Tech’s stifling defense.

Needless to say, Bachmeier has earned my support and should only continue to improve with a full season of play under his belt. Unassuming as a passer but dangerous nonetheless, Bachmeier is so tough for defenses to stop thanks to a physicality that his 6’2”, 230 pound frame has proven capable of handling. Pairing Bachmeier with LJ Martin, arguably the Big 12’s best running back, is almost unfair and should again provide BYU with opportunities to eat up clock on offense. Bachmeier’s contributions will again go far beyond whatever statistics he manages to post this season.

Mahki Hughes, Houston running back

It makes sense that Hughes ended up finding his way to Houston after a one year stop at Oregon, as the senior back and his coach have produced some of their best work together. Hughes was the feature back on Tulane’s 2023 team that won 11 games, the last season Willie Fritz was at the program before coming to Houston. Now Hughes will have an excellent opportunity to again be a focal point of the offense for Fritz in a system that he has already proven he can flourish in.

Houston’s offensive schematic favors a guy like Hughes that can be successful gaining yards after contact, but should preserve his health thanks to a deep running back room and an offensive line that should be able to create holes. Because of Connor Weigman’s career trajectory, if Houston is a national story this season Hughes may be slightly overlooked, but the Cougars need him to be a true threat to win anything of note.

Cam Cook, West Virginia running back

The FBS leader in rushing yards in 2025 (1,659 with Jacksonville State) is an absolute workhorse, who also lead the country in touches by a non-quarterback last season. But it’s a more advanced metric that helps explain why Rich Rodriguez felt like it was such a win to convince Cook to join him at West Virginia this season. The 5’9”, 202 pound Cook is one of three running backs (current pros Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skattebo being the others) to record at least 100 missed tackles forced in a single season.

What that means in more simple terms is, the guy is hard to bring down. And not because he has otherworldly speed or is coming at you like Derrick Henry, but because he possesses elite control of his body and creates open space on his own accord. His skillset also benefits him in the passing game, where like Jeanty he is also adept at creating havoc.

Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State quarterback

The redshirt sophomore already qualifies as one of the most interesting stories in college football. In high school, Mestemaker didn’t start a single game at quarterback for his varsity team. As a zero star recruit, he walked onto North Texas to play for Eric Morris and initially didn’t see much of the field there either, until the bowl game during his freshman year required his services as a starter due to transfer activity. Mestemaker went on to throw for nearly 400 yards and two touchdowns, setting the course to become North Texas’s guy the next season and providing a window into what type of quarterback he could become.

Mestemaker has landed in Stillwater to help his head coach navigate the waters of a P4 conference. His X-ACTO knife precision and quick decision making are two reasons why. Morris has been credited with discovering and developing the following players during his career: Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes and Cam Ward. Now, he is trusting that Mestemaker can help him build something at Oklahoma State. Not bad for a kid who never got handed the ball to be the starter under Friday night lights.

Games to Watch (Conference)

Houston at Texas Tech (September 18)

The first real test for either team comes on a Friday night, and should set the tone for what could be a hotly contested Big 12 title race. Houston’s strong rushing attack should provide a window into just how well the Red Raiders did at filling the gaps left by three NFL draft choices on the defensive line.

Houston at Utah (October 24)

Homecoming in Salt Lake City is a big one, with Houston seeking to preserve a perfect all-time record against the Utes. The Cougars will be ending a tough stretch of four road games in six weeks and by this time Utah’s fronts on both sides will have had time to gel. Hard hitting, physical football should be expected in this game which figures to have an impact near the top of the conference standings.

West Virginia at TCU (October 24)

Either of these teams have an opportunity to be the surprise of the Big 12 this season, with both benefiting from soft schedules to start the year. There is a chance that both of these teams could enter this game ranked and still be in the conference title discussion, but it feels like a must win as both schedules ramp up significantly from here.

BYU at Utah (November 7)

The Utes have historically dominated the Holy War, but the Cougars have gotten the best of Utah on the last three tries, including both games since it became a Big 12 tilt. All but four of the last 25 games in this series have been decided by single digits, and you’re a brave soul if you feel confident betting against that trend.

Games to Watch (Non-Conference)

Arizona State at Texas A&M (September 12)

The early season is tough for the Sun Devils, with this trip to Kyle Field arguably being a bigger headache than the one to London a week later. Arizona State has a lot of new faces and they will have their hands full against this Texas A&M squad. It’s the type of spot that Kenny Dillingham loves, however, as his group won’t be expected to win and that’s where his teams have thrived.

Oregon at Oklahoma State (September 12)

This is one of the more underrated quarterback battles of the entire season, thus its candidacy as a game to watch. Oregon should be exceptional on both sides of the ball, however, and it will take a monumental effort by the Cowboys to shock the Ducks.

Notre Dame at BYU (October 17)

This is by far the most difficult road test of the season for the Fighting Irish, but for the Cougars it’s part of a sneaky difficult four game stretch in which the team will face two opponents coming off a bye week. BYU is tough in Provo, boasting a 26-7 record there over the past five seasons, and last recorded win for the program over Notre Dame came at Lavell Edwards Stadium (in 2004).

Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)

*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!

BYU Makes College Football Playoff (+330)

The Cougars were a clear second to Texas Tech in the Big 12 last season, but the way they lost both games against the Red Raiders was all the motivation they needed in the offseason to fill the gaps. To two may converge this season, with Texas Tech not as strong as in 2025 and BYU more experienced and talented than last season.

West Virginia Over 6.5 Wins (+150)

Rich Rod has worked magic in Morgantown before, and has assembled another transfer heavy squad that should hold its own in the Big 12 better than last season. With a very favorable first half, there is a chance the Mountaineers clear this mark within their first seven games.

Terrance Carter Wins Mackey Award (+500)

This is almost unfair, as Carter is slightly undersized for a tight end (6’2”, 245 pounds) and therefore acts more like a traditional wide receiver within Texas Tech’s attack. He is still adept at breaking tackles in the open field, however, and figures to be a key component for the Red Raiders in the passing game before potentially going as a first round pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

Predictions

1. BYU (11-1, [9-0])
2. Texas Tech (11-1, [8-1])
3. Houston (9-3, [6-3])
4. Cincinnati (9-3, [6-3])
5. Kansas State (9-3, [6-3])
6. Arizona (8-4, [5-4])
7. Utah (8-4, [5-4])
8. TCU (8-4, [5-4])
9. West Virginia (7-5, [4-5])
10. Kansas (6-6, [4-5])
11. UCF (6-6, [4-5])
12. Baylor (5-7, [3-6])
13. Arizona State (5-7, [3-6])
14. Oklahoma State (4-8, [2-7])
15. Colorado (3-9, [2-7])
16. Iowa State (3-9, [1-8])

Conference Title Game

BYU vs. Texas Tech (game in Arlington, TX)

Champion: Texas Tech