2025 NCAAF: Week 7 Preview

We witnessed a wild one last weekend. And by that, I mean the entirety of it.

Not even halfway through the season, the top two teams in the preseason AP Top 25 have fallen out of the poll entirely. One of them did so following a loss to a team that had previously not led at any point in the entire season. Not a single second. The winning OC of that game barely even knew how to work his headset.

The chaos is far from over, though. This week kicks off a glorious string of 49 days in a row where some level of football will be played each day.

It’s time for the casuals to become Sickos, and the Sickos to become – whatever comes next. Horrible writing. Who cares, if you’re upset scroll to the game analysis.

If you decided to not to skip, things have settled down in the head-to-head prediction game over the past few weeks.

The current records after Week 6 (note: the sharpest readers will notice that a phantom game appears to have been inserted into the overall records between this week and last week. This is not the case. It was realized this week that the result of the Texas A&M/Notre Dame game from Week 3 was not tallied for either side, and has been updated to account for this.):

K. Becks – 19-11 SU, 11-17-2 ATS

Guests – 20-10 SU, 12-16-2 ATS

This week, my brother and current Ohio State student Kevin will join the blog to make picks for the guests. I know I’m going to hear about his picks (especially against the spreads) all weekend, but I’ll go on record now to state that I’m not impressed by anything short of him catapulting the guests back over .500 for the season in that category.

Let’s take a look at the top games to watch in Week 7.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend

#1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)

The battle for Illibuck returns to college football for the first time since 2017, having experienced the nearly eight-year hiatus thanks in part to a COVID-induced cancellation of the matchup in 2020. Moving forward the rivalry will be renewed at least twice every half decade. The Illini have not been particularly successful against the Buckeyes this millennium, scoring just two victories since 2000. Of particular note is the 2007 victory, when the Juice Williams-led Illini took down the No. 1 ranked Buckeyes in Columbus. Illinois has not won against Ohio State in Champaign since 1991, though this year still looks like one of the best opportunities that the program has had to do so since that time.

Despite what we saw from Illinois against Indiana a few weeks back, the Ilini’s offense has been pretty solid this year and with perfect execution, has the ability to keep pace with the Buckeyes this Saturday. The surprising thing about Bret Beilema’s squad this season is that the defense does seem to have some weaknesses, especially when it comes to defending the pass. The Ilini has given up at least 300 yards through the air in half of their games this season and will have a hard time winning this one if that trend continues. The Buckeyes are not yet at optimal levels when it comes to offensive balance, but have already shown there is enough talent to overcome that. On top of that, the defense has proven to be elite at all levels and will be tough to move the ball on. In the preseason I thought this was a game where Ohio State could really struggle, but I’m now of the opinion that it is Illinois that will need to play nearly perfectly to even have a chance to win. The Ilini should keep things interesting as long as Luke Altmyer has time to throw (a question mark), but the Buckeyes won’t lose unless they play their sloppiest game of the year.

My Pick: 34-24 Ohio State (does not cover -14 spread)

Kevin’s Take: Go Big Nut. All Buckeyes, all day. I do not believe the Buckeyes will be beat during the regular season. With that said…35-20 Buckeyes! O-H

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)

The Crimson Tide’s Week 1 loss to Florida State seems to be building more distance than reality would suggest with each Alabama victory. Kalen DeBoer’s team is halfway through a brutal stretch that sees the squad facing four ranked opponents in a row – a string of games that could grow in number depending on what happens to South Carolina over the next couple of weeks. The slate has asked a number of tough questions of the Crimson Tide; including whether it can win on the road, whether it can win as an underdog, as well as a favorite against a confident upstart. Thus far DeBoer’s group has had answers for them all. This weekend’s game presents yet another new challenge – namely, whether the Alabama offense can outduel an elite defense.

While many would prefer to focus on the Missouri offense and the ascendance of transfer portal stars Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy, the real reason that the Tigers have a legitimate shot to beat the Crimson Tide is their defense. This is the side that Eli Drinkwitz teams are known for, and it isn’t disappointing this season. Having played some solid offenses this season, Missouri has been elite against the run, holding half of its opponents to fewer than 35 yards rushing this season. The Tigers may force Alabama’s offense into being rather one dimensional, which could put a lot of pressure on Ty Simpson to be great. He has emerged as one of the most accurate passers in the country, but hasn’t really been asked to be a hero for the offense. That, along with Missouri’s ability to keep the Alabama defense on the field and wear out the big guys up front, would give the Tigers an excellent shot to win this game. The blueprint is seemingly there for Missouri to win this game, but I think the Crimson Tide are progressively improving each week and may be the class of the SEC by season’s end. As good as Missouri has looked this season, Drinkwitz’s crew still needs to prove it can win its biggest conference games.

My Pick: 35-31 Alabama (covers -3 spread)

Kevin’s Take: Tough one to choose right here. Possibly game of the week. Mizzou has to come out with strength, though. Otherwise, it’s all Bama to the house. Regardless, it’s high scoring. 38-28 Roll Tide!

#7 Indiana at #3 Oregon (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)

I wasn’t prepared for this to be the Big Ten’s marquee matchup of the week, but here we are, with both the Hoosiers and Ducks exceeding my preseason expectations of them. Both are firing on all cylinders offensively, and while I expect there to be some semblance of a heavyweight boxing match in the early stages, there is little chance that the talent on each offense won’t decide who wins this game. In the Big Ten, Dan Lanning effectively meets his match in Curt Cignetti when it comes to comfort level with taking chances. It should be an exciting one in Eugene on Saturday afternoon.

Indiana’s dominance of Illinois started in the trenches, where the Hoosiers dominated the Ilini’s offensive line and made it very difficult for Luke Altmyer to do much of anything without defenders bearing down on him. As aggressive as Cignetti’s defense likes to be, that aspect may come back to bite them in this game. No one in the country is better than Oregon at protecting the quarterback, and Dante Moore’s athleticism also plays a part in the Ducks allowing only one sack so far this season. If Indiana decides to send pressure anyway, Moore can make the Hoosiers pay. On the other side, I do expect Fernando Mendoza to have success against the Oregon defense but am skeptical whether or not the Indiana offense will be able to be as balanced against the Ducks as it has been against other competition. Lanning’s group can and will play man coverage against Indiana’s talented wideouts, in exchange for ensuring the Ducks aren’t gashed by the run game. In the end, I feel that Oregon has a few more strategic levers to pull in this one, whereas Indiana will try to utilize most of the same tactics that got it to this point. These games end up being as much sideline tactical battles as anything, an area where I give Lanning a slight edge.

My Pick: 35-28 Oregon (pushes -7 spread)

Kevin’s Take: Pepper, get me some new shorts, because this is a doozy. However, Oregon wants to be No. 1 and wants the Buckeyes to burn. Sorry Hoosier Nation…time for another wakeup call. Hasta happen sometime. Ducks 40-21

#6 Oklahoma vs. Texas [game in Dallas] (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)

This year’s edition of the Red River Rivalry breaks a two-year streak of both schools coming in ranked in the Top 25, and is the first time since 2017 that only the Sooners are ranked. Thanks to a combination of Texas’s offensive struggles, a key injury for Oklahoma’s offense and the Sooners defense in general, all signals are pointing towards this one not being a shootout. But history would suggest that when these two link up to play, offense tends to find a way to play a Texas-sized role in the outcome. I’m prepared to be surprised about how this game will play out and find it to be the most difficult of the games to predict this week.

John Mateer’s status for this game at time of writing was still unclear, so for the purpose of analysis I have to assume he is not going to play. Mateer being healthy for the game totally changes the complexion of the Oklahoma offense – after all, he was brought in to replace the guy who will start in his place if he is unable to go on Saturday. Michael Hawkins Jr. struggled to find a rhythm in the passing game last season and hasn’t played enough this year to prompt a change in the opinion formed about him after 2024. If he plays for the Sooners, I don’t expect that Oklahoma will be particularly aggressive offensively and instead lean on its defense to get stops and set up good field position. As anemic as the Texas offense has looked at times, there is a possibility that could work. At the same time, a disrespected, likely angry Texas offense has something to prove in this game. If the offensive line can give Arch Manning time in the pocket, he may look like a different player this week. At full strength, Oklahoma is a better team. I don’t think we’ll see that in this one, and Texas will keep it close.

My Pick: 20-16 Oklahoma (covers +1 spread)

Kevin’s Take: Imma give Texas and ole Archiebald Meatpants Manning a chance with this one. Should be a boring one. Low scoring, I assume. Could be wrong – anyways, Longhorns 17-10.

#15 Michigan at Southern Cal (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)

There will be no complaints about the scheduling of this one from Lincoln Riley, as the Trojans will welcome Michigan to Los Angeles for a late Saturday afternoon start local time following a bye week to prepare for the Wolverines. Southern Cal has looked like a much better team at home this season, and Michigan has been anything but world-beaters as a road team. However, patience from the fan base is running thin for Coach Riley to deliver the marquee victory that is seemingly long overdue for the Trojans. On paper Southern Cal appears to have the type of offense capable of running the Wolverines off the field, but it’s hard to envision this one being anything but a one-possession battle late in the fourth quarter.

The stage is set for Jayden Maiava to have a coming out party, which would satisfy a number of pundits that already have him pegged as one of the best quarterbacks in the college game. The redshirt junior leads the Big Ten with 317 passing yards per game and has connected on 70 percent of his passing attempts this season. As creative as Michigan can be with its pressure application, it will be tough to rattle Maiava and the Trojans do a good job protecting him (four sacks allowed this season). Against Illinois last time out, Southern Cal turned a corner, for the first time all season attempting more passes than rushes in a game. While it didn’t result in a victory, it was close (on the road, against a ranked opponent) and suggested that the Trojans can win that way. They’ll have to do it, as Michigan’s run defense is unlikely to allow the Trojans the type of running room they have enjoyed in prior games. Michigan won’t change its approach offensively, and last season that worked to perfection against Riley & Co. But this time around, I think the Trojans will get the job done against the Wolverines. Another one score game is incoming between these two.

My Pick: 27-21 Southern Cal (covers -2.5 spread)

Kevin’s Take: *ichigan got me feeling so*e type of way. Hate the way these guys co*e together right before the big *atchup in Nove*ber. Day can’t lose another, for now. *ichigan 28-14

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend

#24 South Florida at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN2)

If you’re seeking something to do on Friday night, look no further. This has a great chance of being the G5 game of the year, with both teams still in position to be the recipient of the Group’s automatic berth to the Playoff.

Florida at #5 Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)

Can the Gators make it two in a row against highly ranked opponents from the state of Texas? This one may be tougher than last week, with Florida traveling away from The Swamp and having to find a way to slow down one of the SEC’s most dynamic offensive attacks. But it’s becoming hard to bet against Billy Napier, provided he’s on the hot seat.

#10 Georgia at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

The Tigers have come close to pulling off a big upset a couple of times already this season. With still a few chances seemingly left after this one, it is bound to happen at some point. Georgia’s stout run defense will be heavily tested in this one.

South Carolina at #11 LSU (Saturday, 7:45 PM ET – SEC Network)

LaNorris Sellers is slated to play for the Gamecocks this weekend, and for that reason South Carolina has a chance to pull off the upset. The Tigers have looked shaky most of the season, but have had a week off to get right after the loss to Mississippi and will have the Death Valley crowd behind them in this one.

#21 Arizona State at Utah (Saturday, 10:15 PM ET – ESPN)

Last season, this game effectively broke Utah and set the Sun Devils on a collision course with the CFP. With a healthier offense, the Utes will look to exact revenge against Arizona State, which has been surviving a tricky schedule up to this point but seems to be stuck in third gear at times offensively. It’s a must win situation for both if they want to keep pace with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title race.