2025 NCAAF: Week 5 Preview

A few of my top takeaways from a week full of “prove it” games:

• Texas Tech can no longer be ignored. Their ability to take control of games makes them a legitimate Playoff candidate at this point.
• They (Nebraska) are who we thought they were. Time to start prepping the “Year 4” hype for Matt Rhule.
• Indiana may have actually sabotaged itself thanks the way that it beat Illinois. The Ilini were beaten so badly that they were nearly dumped from the Top 25 entirely, which could result in the victory being treated as less impressive than it was.
• An obvious “where K. Becks was wrong” statement, Notre Dame’s defense is a liability. The Fighting Irish still have a path to the Playoff, but it’s getting muddier every week that the defense shows little to no improvement.

We had our first push ever in the head-to-head prediction game (at least, that has been correctly tallied). Jessica probably should have received two wins for Indiana’s performance, but alas, the gap has been closed a little.

The current records after Week 4:

K. Becks – 10-9 SU, 7-11-1 ATS

Guests – 12-7 SU, 7-11-1 ATS

This week, my Dad will make picks in what is looking like the best slate of games in college football so far this season.

Let’s take a look at the top games to watch in Week 5.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend

#24 TCU at Arizona State (Friday, 9 PM ET – FOX)

The Sun Devils are in the midst of an absolutely brutal portion of their schedule, which sees the team take on just about every true contender for the Big 12 title between last week and the first week of November. Kenny Dillingham’s team survived and advanced through week one of its difficult stretch, beating Baylor on a last-second field goal in Waco. While that performance wasn’t quite enough to climb back into the Top 25, a victory over currently ranked TCU probably will be. And more importantly, it would keep Arizona State atop the conference standings and on track to defend its league title. The Horned Frogs represent a slight step up from last week, however, as a more potent version of Baylor offensively.

Coach Dillingham seemingly learned from the Mississippi State upset, ensuring that the Sun Devils didn’t leave any time on the board for Baylor to break their hearts in the final seconds. And while difficult, the approach may be the best option against the Horned Frogs as well. Second in the Big 12 in total offense behind Texas Tech, TCU’s attack is more balanced than one may think based on the program’s history. While Hoover leads the conference in passing yards per game, he’s just fifth in passing attempts, right behind Sam Leavitt. The athletic Leavitt will almost certainly look to soften up TCU’s defense with his legs, but should be careful not to overdo it. TCU is already suspect against the pass and Leavitt can have a big night simply by taking care of the football. Similarly to last week, if Arizona State can avoid the poor start that plagued it against Mississippi State, this should be a close contest where clever coaching near the end will serve the winning squad well. And this time, the Sun Devils will be playing in front of a home squad.

My Pick: 31-27 Arizona State (covers -3 spread)

Dad’s Take: Sun Devils prevail at home, 34-28.

#4 LSU at #13 Mississippi (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)

The Magnolia Bowl doesn’t require any extracurriculars to improve the watchability, but with Lane Kiffin and Brian Kelly at the helm we’re seldom without them. This year, it’s a divided Kiffin household that has caught the attention of social media prior to the game. Lane’s daughter may not be as mysterious as one Joey Freshwater, but the interest in her dating prospects certainly rivals the campus legend. Whether her beau reveal was a shot at her father or just a fun way to kick off rivalry week is unclear, but it’s likely that the elder Kiffin will have a tongue-in-cheek response to it at some point before Sunday. As far as the on-the-field action is concerned, what we’ll get is far less predictable. Whether either team is truly a Top 15 squad is debatable, but a victor this weekend will definitely receive a massive bump in positive national perception.

Through four games, the Tigers have yet to allow a single opponent to score two touchdowns. Whether that is the strength of the LSU defense or the ineptitude of the offenses it has faced is still unknown. We’ll find out which one this Saturday. Mississippi looked headed for a season of lingering questions about its offense in the early going, but over the past two games appears to have found its answer at quarterback. The backup to start the season, Trinidad Chambliss has seized the starting role and appears to have the Rebels offense almost to where it was with Jaxson Dart last season. That’s a massive leap to make with limited film against decent defenses, but supposedly that’s what Chambliss will face this weekend. I don’t think it’s out of the question for Chambliss to outplay Garrett Nussmeier, who like a lot of other highly touted quarterbacks coming into this season has been underwhelming. The Mississippi defense isn’t afraid to take chances and will come after Nussmeier the same way I expect the LSU defense to do so against Chambliss. Mistakes from both are not out of the question. Based on what I have seen from both offenses, I like Lane to remind Landry (and Whit Weeks) who is college football’s ultimate troll.

My Pick: 34-28 Mississippi (covers -1.5 spread)

Dad’s Take: LSU ranked too high…but Ole Miss is, too.

LSU 31-24

#15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)

With Vanderbilt ranked inside the Top 25, the 4-0 Bulldogs have firmly staked their claim as the SEC’s most underrated program so far this season. But while the heavy upset of Arizona State three weeks ago helped Mississippi State eclipse its Vegas line of 3.5 wins for the year in the first month of the season, it hasn’t tricked pollsters into throwing a pity party. In its final eight games of the season, Mississippi State faces six teams that are currently ranked. One of those teams is Tennessee, which was painstakingly close to beating Georgia two weeks ago and looks like one of the best teams in the country with a loss. Make no bones about it, the Bulldogs will earn it if they are to see a number next to their name at any point this season.

Joey Aguilar has certainly made a lot of fans forget who was playing quarterback (and causing issues in the offseason) for the Vols last season, but more importantly, he has allowed Josh Huepel to employ his preferred offensive schematics. Aguilar’s ability to push the ball downfield has been too much for opposing defenses to stop thus far, but the Mississippi State defense may legitimately be the best he has seen this season. On the other side, Blake Shapen has been solid for the Bulldogs and has looked strong in Jeff Lebby’s up-tempo offense. Lebby, an Art Briles disciple (and son-in-law of the former Baylor head man) will know how to poke holes in a Tennessee defense that has been suspect at times, if only because it can be with the way the offense has been humming. While I expect Starkvegas to be as loud as ever, Aguilar & Co. should be able to survive the cowbells and keep their Playoff and SEC title hopes alive.

My Pick: 38-28 Tennessee (covers -7.5 spread)

Dad’s Take: Vols win on the road, 38-27.

#6 Oregon at #3 Penn State (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)

There are a few intriguing Big Ten vs. former Pac-10 battles this weekend that would not have existed as conference games two seasons ago, but none is bigger than the one taking place in Happy Valley on Saturday evening. Naturally, this game is a White Out and the atmosphere will be electric, seemingly an advantage to the hosting Nittany Lions. But Oregon has looked every bit like one of, if not the, best team in the country this season and Dan Lanning has done an excellent job solidifying the Ducks as perennial Big Ten and national title contenders. While this is unlikely to be a game where a loss destroys either team’s shot at making the Playoff, a lot of questions should be answered on both sides.

I have been very impressed with how quickly Oregon’s offensive line has come along, as it was one of the main question marks I had about this team headed into the season. It has done an excellent job protecting Dante Moore in pass coverage, allowing just one sack, as well as creating running lanes. Moore seemingly made a good decision waiting his turn behind Dillon Gabriel as he seems very confident in the pocket and is athletically ideal to run this offense. He can make the necessary throws and has shown some of the athleticism that brought attention to him during his freshman season at UCLA. Both teams will likely want to establish themselves with the run game, but this game will require some plays from the quarterbacks as well. We know what Drew Allar is capable of, but it does seem like the loss of Tyler Warren has Penn State seeking some answers downfield. If the Nittany Lions play too conservatively, Oregon will win this game. James Franklin will once again need to prove he is willing to roll the dice against a guy in Dan Lanning that hasn’t shown any fear in doing so while at Oregon.

My Pick: 33-30 Oregon (covers +3.5 spread)

Dad’s Take: Wild Ducks outplay conservative Lions.

Oregon 42-38

#17 Alabama at #5 Georgia (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

It has been 10 years since Georgia welcomed the Crimson Tide to Athens, and the Bulldogs have not lost a game at home in the 2020s. But Kirby Smart has had minimal success against Alabama, with a career 1-6 record against his former employer including an 0-1 record against Kalen DeBoer. Despite the struggles that Alabama experienced Week 1 against Florida State, this feels like a game that the Crimson Tide are being given a decent chance to win. Ty Simpson has been an assassin in the Tide’s previous two games, connecting on over 84 percent of his passes and tossing 11 touchdowns, helping Alabama climb to second in the SEC in passing offense. Georgia struggled mightily with the number one team in the conference in that category (Tennessee), suggesting that the Crimson Tide may indeed be able to hand the Bulldogs their first home loss since before COVID.

Georgia simply survived the Tennessee game two weeks ago, thanks to Kirby Smart’s refusal to get rattled and change the game plan when it looked early on like the Bulldogs may get boat raced. That ability is currently what separates Smart from every other coach in the SEC, including DeBoer. Chances are that Simpson’s gaudy offensive statistics are in large part due to the competition that Alabama has faced since the Florida State loss. While Georgia’s secondary will give up some big plays, the Bulldogs defense also can force opposing quarterbacks into mistakes (as it did Joey Aguilar twice). This will be a game that will see multiple shifts in momentum, and both teams will have an opportunity to slam the door shut as well as pry it back open at various points. Alabama arguably needs to win this game more in order to stay in the Playoff conversation, but I’m of the opinion that real ball knowers will understand the Crimson Tide is still a good team if this game stays within a touchdown. I think it will, but the Bulldogs will keep the home winning streak alive and Coach Smart won’t have to hear about his poor record against Alabama for at least another 11 months.

My Pick: 35-31 Georgia (covers -3 spread)

Dad’s Take: It’s not “high Tide” like a few years ago, but the Tide is rising. Bama wants this one.

Bama 31-30

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend

#21 Southern Cal at #23 Illinois (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)

As a non-partisan viewer, it was tough to watch the Illini blatantly give up on last week’s game against Indiana. While things don’t necessarily get any easier against a Southern Cal defense leading the country in sacks, the Illinois coaching staff at least has a clear understanding of what is required to keep this game competitive. Luke Altmyer must be kept upright.

#22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)

The Razorbacks blew an 18-point lead against Memphis last weekend, putting head coach Sam Pittman on the hot seat but also putting the Notre Dame defense on notice. Notre Dame’s issue this season, surprisingly, appears to be its ability to stop the opposition from scoring, which is something that an angry Arkansas offense may be able to do quite a bit of in this one.

#1 Ohio State at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)

The Buckeyes have been lightly challenged since their season opener against Texas, but the first road test of the season for Ryan Day’s squad will require that the No. 1 team in the country isn’t looking ahead. Demond Williams is dynamic at quarterback, Jonah Coleman is the most underrated running back in the country and Husky Stadium is always a tough place to travel to and get a win. Ohio State should survive, but fans unfamiliar with Washington’s game may get anxious at times.  

Auburn at #9 Texas A&M (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)

As much as I want to come down on Hugh Freeze, it would be unfair to say that Auburn was anything but competitive and a bit unlucky against a talented Oklahoma squad last Saturday. The Tigers have proven they are capable of keeping pace with Texas A&M offensively, and Freeze’s defense might be able to slow down the Aggies more than others this season, too. This is an interesting game that should concern fans in College Station.

Arizona at #14 Iowa State (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)

This is a tricky game for the Cyclones, who under Matt Campbell are confident in an offensive approach that doesn’t allow for a ton of separation from the opposition, especially when that opposition can score quickly. Arizona has been surprisingly stout defensively this season, and against shared opponent Kansas State, did a better job than Iowa State at shutting down Avery Johnson. Road upsets are tough to predict, but this looks like a good opportunity to call one.