2025 NCAAF: Week 11 Preview

The best part about heading into Week 11?

Easy – we no longer have to pretend that the AP poll matters.

It has been a particularly tough year for the poll, which has seen its value publicly questioned by a participating voter and has had to deal with the humiliation of its consensus preseason top two both spending time entirely outside of the Top 25 at points.

With the CFP Committee releasing its first rankings of the season earlier this week, the AP’s list is but an afterthought aside from the side-by-side comparisons that do little to spur any truly valuable discussions at this point.

Similarly, it has been a rough year for my own pride – and predictions.

The current records after Week 10:

K. Becks – 28-22 SU, 18-30-2 ATS

Guests – 33-17 SU, 24-24-2 ATS

Ryan continued the string of victories for the guests, which at this point I’m not even keeping track of because it has gotten so bad. This week my buddy Jack has agreed to take a stab at being the latest victor. Luckily, my service will be spotty for at least part of the weekend and that could prevent me from again having to witness by picks go up in flames.

Let’s take a look at the best that Week 11 has to offer.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend

Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 PM ET – ESPN)

The American currently has eight teams with one or two league losses, making it a candidate for the most interesting conference in the country heading into the last several weeks of the regular season. Both Tulane and Memphis are included in that grouping, meaning that the Green Wave and Tigers still have a shot at a Playoff bid despite neither one being ranked in the first CFP rankings of the campaign. This comes after Tulane’s blowout loss to UTSA last week and Memphis’s stumble against UAB. That all being said, this game is an elimination battle in more ways than one. As competitive and seemingly strong as the conference has been in 2025, it risks being shut out of the Playoff altogether if one of its top teams is unable to run the table for the rest of the season.

Tulane’s defense in general has been inconsistent this season, but against the most potent offenses the Green Wave has struggled. Memphis can move the football through the air, but is dangerous on the ground as well and Brendon Lewis fits Ryan Silverfield’s approach to offense particularly well. It would not be surprising to see the Tigers employ a run-heavy gameplan in this one, seeking to keep the ball out of the hands of Jake Retzlaff. While Retzlaff had his worst game of the season last week, his aggressive mentality opens the door for a bounceback effort if Memphis allows it. Rather than take the chance of engaging in yet another shootout, I think that the Tigers will try to slow things down and rely on its superior capabilities in the run game on both sides of the ball to carry them past the Green Wave. A win here should catapult Memphis into the CFP’s rankings next week.

My Pick: 27-23 Memphis (covers -3.5 spread)

Jack’s Take: Tulane 26 – Memphis 34

Tulane has been putting together a solid showing this season up until last week. Losing in that fashion to a 4-4 UTSA last week is too hard to look past. I don’t believe the team will bounce back to beat Memphis.

Memphis holding a 4-5 Rice team to 14 isn’t saying much when that same Rice team lost to UTSA 61-10 earlier this season. I don’t expect Memphis to have a blowout win, but they have the edge to stay on top and pull out a win.

#2 Indiana at Penn State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)

Frankly, it’s shocking how quickly the roles have been reversed at these two programs. Coming off its fifth loss in a row, Penn State enters this game playing for nothing other than pride and a chance to orchestrate one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. Meanwhile, Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers rolling and turning even the biggest critics into believers in Indiana. The Nittany Lions still undeniably have talent on the field – that much was evident at times against Ohio State last weekend. But does Terry Smith have the charisma to motivate a likely downtrodden group enough to fight for four quarters in this one? The losing has been unexpected, but more importantly, increasingly difficult each week to bounce back from with the same level of energy as before.

Penn State hung with Ohio State for a half last weekend, creating holes for their talented running backs and posting more points on the Buckeyes in 30 minutes than they had previously allowed to any team all season. The second half was a different story, though, as Ohio State flexed its collective muscle and pulled away offensively while shutting out the Nittany Lions offense. It seems that the biggest roadblock to Penn State’s chances in this one is a stunted offense that is unable to muster enough points to beat the Big Ten’s best teams. Fernando Mendoza doesn’t have the deep ball that Sayin throws, and makes the occasional mistake, prompting me to believe that Penn State will again show fight early. But Cignetti has been one of the best in the game at making small adjustments and ensuring that his team delivers when it matters. While it may be another close halftime score for the Nittany Lions, I expect that Indiana will have too much offensive firepower in the second half and the crowd won’t be its usual self, rendering Happy Valley unable to rattle the Hoosiers in critical moments.

My Pick: 33-17 Indiana (covers -14.5 spread)

Jack’s Take: Indiana 33 – Penn St 10

Penn State is a shell of what they were last season. With injuries in the QB room and players not living up to the hype across the board, they won’t be able to overcome a Hoosiers team that is making waves in the Big Ten. The Penn State athletic department wrote off the whole season when they parted ways with the reason they are even relevant in college football discussions, James Franklin. Don’t expect any upset here; Penn State might get a win against Rutgers.

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)

Following a lot of noise from the associated fan bases, the Big 12 will get its moment in the national spotlight this weekend when the two teams currently atop the conference’s standings face off in Lubbock. BYU is one of four teams in FBS still unbeaten, though there have been a couple of close calls along the way. If Texas Tech can win this one, the road ahead looks a lot cleaner than what the Cougars still have to face later this season (which includes TCU and on the road at Cincinnati) and Joey McGuire’s team has already gotten the attention of a lot of casuals and pundits alike. Statistically the Red Raiders are unmatched in the Big 12, but BYU has surprised me this season and I can no longer say with confidence that Bear Bachmeier isn’t a difference maker at quarterback. This should be an excellent game and may be a preview of the Big 12 title game about a month from now.

The Red Raiders have played with comfortable leads in the second half in almost all of their games this season, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds if BYU is hanging in the game midway through the third quarter or so. BYU, meanwhile, has been in a number of close games this season and their true freshman quarterback has responded like a seasoned veteran in most of the big spots that required it. While you can to an extent throw away what Texas Tech did offensively in its loss to Arizona State in October, what the Sun Devils were able to expose about the defense could be telling. Bachmeier has surprised me mostly with his arm, and if he avoids costly turnovers can hurt the Red Raiders’ secondary. While I do think that Texas Tech boasts more talent on each side of the ball than anyone the Cougars have seen previously, Kilani Sitake’s team will fight tooth and nail in this one and really put a scare into the home crowd on Saturday afternoon. Cameron Dickey being a quiet stud will make the difference for Texas Tech.

My Pick: 31-27 Texas Tech (does not cover -10 spread)

Jack’s Take: BYU 26 – Texas Tech 24

I expect this matchup to be an in-season bowl game. Both teams walk into this weekend with similar wins on their schedules. Ultimately, I am siding with BYU to take home the win.

#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)

Both of these teams have had an extra week to prepare, which may seem like a good thing but presents a decent chance that at least one of these two squads will come out with a bit of rust to shake off. Following its last bye week, the Aggies slipped by Auburn by a touchdown and had its worst offensive output of the season. The Tigers trumped that, suffering their first loss of the season (albeit against Alabama) following its last week off. Texas A&M has been humming offensively since that Auburn game, but Missouri’s defense has been the best in the SEC this season and resembles the other Tigers on that side of the ball in more ways than one. Eli Drinkwitz will need the defense to step up in a big way with Beau Pribula ruled out for Missouri.

The injuries heading into this one may unfortunately have a significant impact, particularly tor the Tigers. With Pribula out with an ankle injury, Missouri is expected to start true freshman Matt Zollers at quarterback. Filling in for Pribula in the second half of the Vanderbilt game, Zollers was serviceable but in this one will need to lead the offense to score far more than the 10 points that it mustered against the Commodores. It is also not certain that tight end Brett Norfleet, who lead the SEC in touchdown receptions by tight ends, will play. His presence (or lack thereof) as an outlet for the young signal-caller could prove to be huge. The Aggies will also be without a key offensive piece in running back Le’Veon Moss, as well as a couple of defensive contributors that play off the line. However, the loss of Moss is unlikely to be as damaging to Texas A&M’s offensive attack as the loss of Pribula may be for Missouri. Marcel Reed is a problem with his legs and provides enough threat to freeze the second level of Missouri’s defense. Even with Pribula, I think that Missouri would be a slight underdog at home, needing to rely on its defense to make some big stops against Reed & Co., which few teams have been able to do this season. While the defensive stops may still come, I don’t think there is enough juice on the offensive end for the Tigers to keep up with the Aggies.

My Pick: 31-17 Texas A&M (covers -7 spread)

Jack’s Take: Texas A&M 34 – Missouri 28

If Missouri pays close attention to the film on the Aggies against the Razorbacks, they have a chance to find the end. I just don’t see Missouri pulling off the upset and staying ahead of the Aggies offense.

“This is gold, Jerry…Gold!”

#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)

Prior to Tuesday evening’s unveiling of the CFP rankings, this was not a ranked vs. ranked matchup. However, the Committee apparently sees something in the Hawkeyes that the AP poll voters have not recognized in 2025, with Iowa having spent no time in the latter rankings this season. There is clearly a path to the Playoff now for Kirk Ferentz, albeit not an easy one. Oregon is the first of back-to-back ranked matchups against teams that will be looking to run Iowa off the field. Dan Lanning’s group is the fifth highest scoring offense in the country this season, though it has been proven already this season that the Ducks can be slowed down. Accordingly, defense may ultimately dictate the story of this one. Both Oregon and Iowa are top five defenses nationally and the expectation of poor weather may prevent the offenses from putting on a show.

It’s not sexy by any means, but the Iowa Way of pound and ground offense coupled with a bend but don’t break defense once again has the Hawkeyes flirting with national relevance in November. We were promised something different with Mark Gronowski before the season began, which hasn’t really come to fruition but has been generally successful nonetheless. While Iowa has lost 11 straight games against ranked competition, it has been good under Kirk Ferentz at home in November against such competition and showed it can slow down a potent offense when it nearly beat Indiana earlier this season. The Hawkeyes can replicate its gameplan against the Hoosiers in this one and I think that’s what will determine whether they are in another tight battle late in the fourth or going through the motions with a double-digit deficit at that time. With the type of season that it’s been already and my predictions siding with the favorites in all of the other key matchups this weekend, I’ll take a flier on some chaos in Iowa City.

My Pick: 23-21 Iowa (covers +6.5 spread)

Jack’s Take: Iowa 27 – Oregon 24

I believe these teams match up more evenly than their ranking suggests. If the Iowa defense can put pressure on Dante Moore (coming off a facial injury), the Hawkeyes have a chance to eek out a win.

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend

Auburn at #16 Vanderbilt (Saturday, 4 PM ET – SEC Network)

This is the fifth time this season that Auburn will have faced a ranked opponent, and the Tigers have not lost any of those games by more than 10 points. The bad news, however, is that they have lost all of those games, and even the firing of Hugh Freeze may not make a difference in this one against a Vanderbilt team that came up just short in a furious comeback bid last Saturday.

Jack’s Take: Vanderbilt

Wake Forest at #14 Virginia (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)

Neither the on-field nor the on-paper aspects have a lot of people high on the Cavaliers at this point, but they are the last remaining team in the ACC without a conference loss and therefore are in the driver’s seat for a Playoff spot at this point. Wake Forest has already beaten SMU and lost by a point to Georgia Tech, placing them among the top “spoilers” in the country this year despite sitting at 2-3 in league play.

Jack’s Take: Wake Forest

LSU at #4 Alabama (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

With the Brian Kelly era over in Baton Rouge, associate head coach Frank Wilson will step in to lead the Tigers for the remainder of the season. Wilson’s bread and butter is the run game, which has been a weak spot offensively this season for LSU. However, it’s also been something that Alabama’s defense has struggled to defend as well.

Jack’s Take: Alabama

Navy at #10 Notre Dame (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)

The Midshipmen were in a similar spot in 2024 when they took on the Fighting Irish, hoping that a victory would propel them into serious Playoff contention. This season Navy would receive similar respect, but a win in South Bend seems about equally as likely. North Texas had its way with the Navy defense and Notre Dame should, too.

Jack’s Take: Notre Dame

San Diego State at Hawai’i (Saturday, 11 PM ET – CBS Sports Network)

The Aztecs have a shot at the G5 auto bid to the CFP but have a difficult month ahead of them, beginning with this game on the island. San Diego State is the Mountain West’s best defense statistically but will have to contain Micah Alejado, who would likely lead the country in passing attempts this season if he had been healthy for all of the Rainbow Warriors’ games.

Jack’s Take: Hawai’i