2025 NCAAF: Week 10 Preview

The Wishful Thinking picks didn’t serve me well last weekend.

It was yet another ugly week for my predictions, and CMAD joined the many other guests this season that in some way have widened the gap between their collective and myself in the head-to-head pick ‘em game.

I suppose I should just be thankful for the simple things…like not being Brian Kelly.

The current records after Week 9:

K. Becks – 27-18 SU, 16-27-2 ATS

Guests – 30-15 SU, 21-22-2 ATS

This week, my buddy Ryan will join the blog to make picks for the guests. His rationale behind selecting this week to make picks was simple: being able to weigh in on the Ohio State/Penn State matchup. Big oof.

It’s hard to believe now, but just a couple of months ago this weekend’s slate of games looked like one of the best of the entire season. No shade intended, but that didn’t originally factor in a ranked Vanderbilt squad, undefeated service academy and Big 12 After Dark treat.

College football is a lot of things, but predictable isn’t one of them.

Let’s take a look at the top games to watch in Week 10.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend

#9 Vanderbilt at #20 Texas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)

Though seemingly less impressive than its victory over LSU two weekends ago, Vanderbilt kept things rolling against a Missouri squad that I figured had the defense capable of containing Diego Pavia. While that was generally true for 58 minutes, Pavia still managed to dive across the goal line for the game winner late in the fourth quarter to secure the W for the Commodores. Missouri was helpless offensively even with Beau Pribula in the game, but his absence for most of the second half didn’t help matters. This week the Commodores do travel away from Nashville, but do so to take on a Texas squad which may be without its quarterback, as Arch Manning is in concussion protocol at the time of writing.

If Manning is unable to go for the Longhorns, journeyman senior Matthew Caldwell will suit up at quarterback for Steve Sarkisian. Tin foil cap time – it’s actually difficult to say with certainty whether Caldwell is actually worse for the Texas offense than Manning, but we’ll never truly know. This much is likely, though: while Caldwell is similarly mobile, the Longhorns offensive line hasn’t done a good enough job protecting anyone this season. The Vanderbilt defense will know this and will smell blood in the water. I expect it’ll take a monumental coaching effort to unseat Vanderbilt from its historic run this weekend, and Clark Lea has done a pretty good job with the headset himself. Pavia Mania is starting to get on my nerves a bit (he’s not a Heisman candidate if Haynes King isn’t), but it won’t come crashing down this week.

My Pick: 24-17 Vanderbilt (covers +2.5 spread)

Ryan’s Take: Pavia-mania vs. Arch Manning. Who would’ve thought Diego would be the one sitting as a Heisman hopeful in early November? However, Arch wins this showdown as Sark lets him loose. Texas 27 Vandy 20

#10 Miami (FL) at SMU (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)

The last time the majority of the country paid much attention to the Hurricanes, Carson Beck was torching his Heisman candidacy on Friday Night Football, throwing four picks in an unexpected loss to Jeff Brohm’s gang of giant killers. Forget the fact that Louisville might actually be a decent team and that Miami promptly turned things around with a 42-7 victory over Stanford the next weekend – Mario Cristobal’s team landed itself on the “perpetual upset watch” list for the foreseeable future. Such is the case with this weekend’s matchup against SMU, which is led by a quarterback in Kevin Jennings that statistically is having a comparable season to Beck while receiving a fraction of the national attention.

Whereas last season SMU relied on its rushing attack and Jennings played a sizeable role in that approach, this season the Mustangs are more reliant on their quarterback’s arm and Jennings has been far less threatening with his legs. Additionally, Rhett Lashlee’s defensive unit hasn’t been the stifling group that propelled a run to the CFP last season. In fact, the Mustangs are dead last in the ACC in pass defense this season, which provides Beck a soft landing as he arrives back into a spot where more of the country will be watching. Expect Miami to soften things up with its run game, but SMU is still good enough up front to prevent the Hurricanes from doing it all on the ground. Beck will need to show up, and should, propelling Cristobal’s team to a victory that keeps it on track for ACC title game and Playoff appearances.

My Pick: 31-24 Miami (FL) (does not cover -12.5 spread)

Ryan’s Take: Carson Beck and Miami continue their quest for their first ACC Championship. I’ll take Miami 35 SMU 21

Navy at North Texas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN2)

Point taken if you want to argue that neither of these teams have beaten anyone of note this season, but the fact remains that collectively these two are 14-1 and battling for a chance to go to a conference title game that will likely send someone to the CFP. This should be a fun, up-tempo contest with a lot of scoring, as it features two of the top three offenses in the American. It makes sense, with that being said, that it will also feature two of the best quarterbacks in the conference which possess very different yet equally effective skillsets. If the winner of this game isn’t in the Top 25 next week after the AP voters decided to place fellow American member Memphis back into the polls a week after its loss to UAB, rankings should be disregarded until the first CFP rankings arrives in mid-November.

Navy and North Texas are opposites in more ways than one. The Midshipmen will look to keep the ball on the ground and will do so against a North Texas defense that allows almost 200 rushing yards per game to opponents. The Mean Green have found something in Drew Mestemaker, a former walk-on that prior to last season’s bowl game hadn’t started a single game since his freshman year of high school. Mestemaker most recently tossed four touchdowns and had 608 yards through the air and will face a Navy defense that allows an average of 256 yards per game of the aerial variety. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Midshipmen don’t hang into the ball all that much longer than the Mean Green this season, though it may behoove Navy to do so in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Mestemaker. Blake Norvath may be known for his legs, but the Navy quarterback is as capable with his arm as any quarterback from the academy in awhile and that may give the Midshipmen an edge in this one. Where I think this game is won or lost is in the turnover column. North Texas is opportunistic defensively but has also given away possessions in critical scenarios. I don’t expect that the Navy offense will allow for many interception opportunities, and thus the likelihood of committing costly turnovers seems to reside with the home team. I like Navy to escape with its perfect record intact heading into its Week 11 showdown with Notre Dame.

My Pick: 38-36 Navy (covers +6.5 spread)

Ryan’s Take: #RankNavy!

In a big Group of Five matchup, one of the last remaining unbeatens keep it that way. Navy slows the game down and wins. Navy 21 North Texas 20

#18 Oklahoma at #14 Tennessee (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

The Sooners travel to Knoxville following a devastating loss to Mississippi last weekend that put Oklahoma’s chances at a Playoff bid on life support. Not only because of its two losses, per se, but also thanks to the gauntlet of a slate that awaits it. A trip to Tuscaloosa comes a week after this one followed by home games against Missouri and LSU to finish out the regular season. The Volunteers, meanwhile, get a bye week followed by a non-conference opponent, and finish with a trip to Gainesville and its rivalry meeting against Vanderbilt at Rocky Top. If last week’s game in Norman wasn’t a de facto elimination game, this one certainly feels like it is.

An interesting stat to mention about Tennessee: the Volunteers have won four games against P4 competition, and those teams are a combined 1-17 in-conference. Compare that to Oklahoma’s three victories over P4 opponents, which are 6-10 in-conference. However, what Tennessee may lack in quality wins it makes up for with offensive consistency. Aside from a difficult outing against Alabama, the Volunteers haven’t failed to post at least 34 points in every game this season. Joey Aguilar is the most underrated quarterback in the country this season and fits Josh Heupel’s offense perfectly. The Sooners will have their hands full slowing down the Volunteers, though Alabama created a blueprint for how to do it. A big question still remains, however: even if Oklahoma does tame the Tennessee offense, will its own offense bring enough to the table? I have my doubts, as it has become increasingly apparent that the Sooners are too heavily reliant on John Mateer, putting them at a disadvantage against teams that aren’t subpar offensively. Oklahoma will prevent Tennessee from reaching its magic number of 34, but it still won’t be enough.

My Pick: 31-27 Tennessee (covers -3 spread)

Ryan’s Take: We have essentially a CFP elimination game here. Neither team can afford a third loss at this point in the season. John Mateer finally looks himself after his hand surgery and leads the Sooners to a victory. OU 31 UT 27

#17 Cincinnati at #24 Utah (Saturday, 10:15 PM ET – ESPN)

Say what you will about the Big 12’s strength as a conference this year, but the league currently makes up 20 percent of the AP poll and is one of two conferences this weekend that features a ranked vs. ranked matchup. The tilt between Kyle Whittingham’s Utes and Scott Satterfield’s Bearcats wasn’t initially pegged as one of the top games of this coming weekend, but Cincinnati has been a pleasant surprise out of the Big 12 and Utah has been hanging onto its Playoff hopes by a literal thread. From a metrics perspective, the Bearcats have been one of the most efficient offenses in the conference, while Utah is not surprisingly one of the most efficient defenses in the league. With a strength on strength billing and Playoff hopes hanging in the balance, this is one worth staying up for if you’re located in the Eastern time zone.

Much of the country still hasn’t gotten a closeup look at Brendan Sorsby, the underrated dual threat option that has been instrumental to Cincinnati’s great first half of the season. Sorsby’s TD-to-INT ratio of 20/1 is the best in the conference and has paired incredibly well with a loaded backfield to go along with Sorsby’s own wheels. That backfield will be missing one of its key pieces for this game, leading rusher Evan Pryor, which is worth mentioning because if there’s an area where Cincinnati can wear down Utah’s stout defense, it’s with the run game. Conversely, the Utes’ injury news is positive as the team expects Devon Dampier will be back after he missed the last game against Colorado. Dampier has brought a mixed bag to Utah’s biggest games this season, but Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t been as good as Texas Tech and BYU’s, even with some big boys such as Dontay Corleone up front. While Utah’s defense rightfully deserve the accolades it has received, the Utah offense has had more than enough juice in most games this season and will likely find room to run against Cincinnati. A combination of the injury news, a sound gameplan from the Utah coaching staff and the late start for the EST conditioned Bearcats will make it difficult for Satterfield’s crew to leave Salt Lake City victorious.  

My Pick: 35-24 Utah (covers -10 spread)

Ryan’s Take: Like many central Ohioans, I spent my freshman year at UC before transferring to OSU. However, I’m not nostalgic for those days and do find UC fans a bit annoying. UC gets blown out by the Utes. Utah 42 UC 14

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend

Tulane at UTSA (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN)

Another American Conference matchup with slight Playoff implications. If the Roadrunners were to beat the Green Wave, it would be hard to envision Tulane finishing as the top-ranked G5 program if it ended up rebounding to win its league title game. Therefore, this serves as a matchup that could hurt the American while simultaneously proving its depth.

Ryan’s Take: Tulane 35 UTSA 27

Penn State at #1 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)

This was supposed to be one of the games of the season, but the Nittany Lions’ collapse has all but relegated this matchup to being an afterthought for the majority of the country. Penn State has nothing to lose and its motivation to play well boils down to being a season spoiler to its remaining opponents, though the Buckeyes have looked nearly untouchable so far this season and will be difficult to beat in Columbus.

Ryan’s Take: Penn State 27 Ohio State 24

#5 Georgia vs. Florida [game in Jacksonville, FL] (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)

It might take a few drinks at The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party to enjoy this one, but don’t be surprised if the Gators get up for this rivalry game and make it closer than it should be. Florida can be stingy against the pass and the Bulldogs haven’t looked exceptional against teams that play well in the back.

Ryan’s Take: Georgia 28 Florida 14

#13 Texas Tech at Kansas State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – FOX)

Two weeks ago, most of us were already placing the Red Raiders into the Big 12 championship game. Now, Texas Tech needs to avoid any slip ups to avoid falling multiple games back to the current conference leaders. The Wildcats have struggled most of the season but showed last weekend there is some giddy up potential from the offense after all.

Ryan’s Take: Texas Tech 27 K State 24

#23 Southern Cal at Nebraska (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)

It’ll be interesting to see who ends up victorious in this one, if only because Nebraska has shown an inability to win against equal or better competition and the Trojans struggle to do the same, particularly on the road. The Cornhuskers’ Playoff chances are pretty much dead, but the same cannot be said for Southern Cal if it can win this game.

Ryan’s Take: Nebraska 35 USC 28