2025 NCAAF: Week 1 Preview

It has felt like an extra long August (if you’ve seen my socials activity you probably understand why), but we’re finally in the homestretch, and with the homestretch comes football.

What feels like Around The Corn’s “New Year” is a celebration kicking off the next eight months packed with action from the sport that the United States cannot seem to get enough of.

A collective sigh of relief will practically be heard from around the country as we are less than 24 hours or so from being able to sit back, watch games and not worry about the dread of a Monday right around the corner (thanks, Labor Day).

To kick off the season, my buddy Trent joins the blog for the nth time, looking to put the guests in the driver’s seat early in the annual head-to-head prediction battle.

The current records in 2025 (look at that loss column!):

K. Becks – 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS

Guests – 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS

Let’s take a look at the top games of Week 1.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend

Auburn at Baylor (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)

The winner of this game may jump into the Top 25 for Week 2, but getting ahead of themselves will only hurt the Tigers and Bears. The seat is hot under Hugh Freeze at Auburn, but the Tigers should be more consistent offensively this season and give Freeze a chance to save his job. Jackson Arnold was a good pickup from Oklahoma and Arnold should find more consistency this season behind a solid Auburn offensive line. That line will be a good test for Baylor’s rebuilt defensive front, which added size in the offseason to deal with situations like the one they’ll face on Friday night.

If the fans get their way, then this will be a shootout pitting Jackson Arnold’s arm against Sawyer Robertson’s. That could be wishful thinking, though. The latter quarterback mentioned should be one of the best in the Big 12, but Robertson has a really good running back corps at his expense as well, something that the Tigers may lack this season. Baylor will likely stick to a balanced offensive attack and look to soften up a defensive front that could struggle with Baylor’s run game. I’m not sure if Auburn will be able to mix things up as well. It surprised me that the Bears weren’t in the Top 25 to start the season, but I expect them to put together a performance that will change that quickly.

My Pick: 30-22 Baylor (covers +2.5 spread)

Trent’s Take: Both teams are looking to start strong with a win on Friday night and the offensive matchup should be interesting. Auburn has a new QB in Jackson Arnold, who was highly recruited by Oklahoma, but is new to the Tigers’ offense. Baylor has a more “system experienced” quarterback in Sawyer Robertson who led the Bears to a winning 8-5 season last year (despite a bowl loss to LSU). Auburn has done well in its openers recently, winning it the past eight seasons in a row. However, I think Baylor’s home field advantage and stability at the QB position will prove to be streak-ending for Auburn.

Baylor 35 – Auburn 28

#1 Texas at #3 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)

The AP poll had to differentiate itself somehow, so on Around The Corn this matchup won’t show as the first-ever Week 1 matchup between the top two ranked teams. But that doesn’t dampen the hype surrounding this one much, as the defending champion Buckeyes welcome the Longhorns to Columbus for the first time in 20 years in what is also a rematch of last year’s epic Cotton Bowl tilt. Both squads will feature new faces at the quarterback position, but there is a ton of buzz about both Arch Manning and Julian Sayin as well despite their relative inexperience.

Many eyes will be on the quarterbacks in this one, but two key areas of note appear to slightly favor the Buckeyes at home. One is on the offensive line, where Texas is almost completely rebuilt and which will be asked to pave the way for the dynamic Manning, who will give Ohio State the most trouble if he’s able to use his legs as well as his arm. The Buckeyes boast one of the best secondaries in the country, so the chances that Manning is able to carve up the defense with his arm only seem low. I question whether Sarkisian will want to risk his star quarterback’s health so early in the year by letting him run free, which could be the edge that the Buckeyes need to get the season started with a massive victory. On the other end, Sayin may be tasked with being less of a superhero and that should bode well for the true sophomore making his first collegiate start.

My Pick: 33-31 Ohio State (covers -1.5 spread)

Trent’s Take: Wow. What a matchup to get fall and football season started in Columbus, Ohio with a BANG. Gentlemen, be sure to get your wives/girlfriends their PSLs in the morning (and maybe promise to go apple picking at Lynd’s on the Sunday after) as we will all want to be locked in and undisturbed for this one.

On one hand, we have a brand name quarterback in Arch Manning versus a very strong Buckeyes defense led by Caleb Downs. On the other hand we have Julian Sayin, who will be looking to make a name for himself with a huge win over the No. 1 ranked team but will also be facing a very tough defense in burnt orange. I personally think this game will come down to which QB plays better, as both are unproven despite one of them having one of the most recognizable names in all sports. If Sayin can lead the offense to scoring more than 25 points while not turning the ball over, I think the Buckeyes have a great chance at victory. On the flip side, if Manning 2.0 is the second coming of his uncle (you know which one) but with legs to boot, it may be a sad day.

THE Ohio State University 27 – Texas 24

#8 Alabama at Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)

Both programs suffered through disappointing campaigns last season and will be looking to get off on the right foot Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee. New Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos is bullish on the Seminoles’ chances to make waves in Week 1, even doubling down on his comments made earlier in the year that suggested the Alabama defense would struggle to contain him. I like Castellanos, but he is seemingly underestimating a unit that should be dramatically improved compared with last season, when the Crimson Tide were indeed nothing special defensively. No backing down on such comments was expected, of course.

Alabama may resemble something more like what we saw from national runner-up Washington two seasons ago, with Kalen DeBoer relinking with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who took a one-year hiatus from the collegiate ranks but is back with DeBoer in the same role. For its part, Florida State brought in a new defensive coordinator and should be improved on that side of the ball. With so many important new faces on the sidelines let alone on the field, it’s difficult to know exactly what to expect from this game, but I like both teams to contend for a Playoff spot this season and so for that reason I think this one will remain close throughout.

My Pick: 34-27 Alabama (does not cover -12.5 spread)

Trent’s Take: Alabama is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the Seminoles despite being the visitors. On paper this matchup feels like Alabama is poised to handle business. But Seminoles QB Thomas Castellanos had some smack talk for the Crimson Tide and stated, “they don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me.” I appreciate that level of confidence and will be interested to see what happens. However, I think Alabama is going to let their play on the field do all the talking.

Alabama 33 – FSU 17

#9 LSU at #4 Clemson (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

This feels like the biggest “show me” matchup of the weekend, despite both squads being ranked inside the top 10 heading into the season. Not everyone is high on Clemson’s offense, with some hesitation to include Cade Klubnik amongst the most valuable players in the country. While I like Klubnik to be elite this year, I will concede that some of that depends on the running game rounding into form following the departure of Phil Mahfa. If it happens quickly, the Tigers could find a major advantage in this game as LSU is replacing all four of its defensive line starters from last season.

What nobody seems to be questioning is the potency of LSU’s offense, so for as strong as Clemson looks defensively I still expect this game to feature a lot of points. If Brian Kelly’s team is stuffing the run, or it appears that Dabo Swinney has a deficiency in that area of the offense, then LSU might be able to win this game. If not, then I expect a back-and-forth offensive battle where a few key defensive plays will have a massive impact on the outcome. The Clemson defense brings more familiarity and will be at home, so I’m giving the slight edge to Swinney’s squad in what should be a highly entertaining affair.

My Pick: 37-33 Clemson (covers -3.5 spread)

Trent’s Take: Another great matchup for the first weekend of college football. I think this one is a total tossup. Flip a coin. Clemson is usually great at home, but has been not-so-great against SEC competition as of late. Alternatively, LSU has lost five straight first week matchups and is looking to break away from that trend. The Tigers are slight underdogs, but I think they will pull this one out.

LSU 41 – Clemson 38

#6 Notre Dame at #10 Miami (FL) (Sunday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)

This game marks edition No. 28 of Catholics vs. Convicts, a pseudo rivalry matchup which Notre Dame holds a commanding lead in (18-8-1 overall if you include a Notre Dame victory now vacated in the record books), though Miami won the last battle in 2017. Expectations are high for both sides, but especially so for the Fighting Irish, which came one game from a national title last season. Like so many other Playoff contenders, both teams will be breaking in new quarterbacks this season, but the situation is wildly different for each side. Miami pulled Carson Beck from Georgia and will be expecting a turnkey solution for the departed Cam Ward. Notre Dame is putting its faith in redshirt freshman CJ Carr, though by my estimation that’s not as big of a gamble as it may seem.

Notre Dame will look to be methodical and intentional offensively, seeking to establish a foothold with the ground game. This will be taking on the teeth of the Miami defense, though as a whole the Hurricanes are expected to be better defensively thanks to an improved secondary. I think allowing Carr to settle in is the right approach, though as a result the Fighting Irish may be relying on its defense a bit to avoid needing to come from behind. The opinion on Carson Beck is now mixed after a lackluster 2024 season, but Cristobal has a good offensive line and Beck should be at least serviceable. While the Fighting Irish might not need this game, they will definitely want it. Miami needs it, but I am not about to ride with an unproven group against Marcus Freeman, who showed us exactly what he wants Notre Dame to be last season and should be have again in 2025.

My Pick: 27-24 Notre Dame (covers -2.5 spread)

Trent’s Take: “How about I show you this package and we’ll see how fast your calendar opens up”. That’s what the schedulers are clearly saying to us on Week 1… 😉

Another great matchup. Carson Beck and Lloyd Carr’s grandson CJ. I don’t think Carson has “that dawg in him” – at least not anymore. I think Miami will win this game, but it will be tough fought as the Fighting Irish are always that. Fighting.

Notre Dame 21 – Miami 24 (OT)

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend

#25 Boise State at South Florida (Thursday, 5:30 PM ET – ESPN)

The Broncos face a difficult season opener in their quest to earn a trip back to the Playoff, for a multitude of reasons. This is a trap game for Boise State that not enough people are giving it credit for being.

Nebraska vs. Cincinnati [game in Kansas City, MO] (Thursday, 9 PM ET – ESPN)

Former Big 12 vs. current Big 12 will feature in the rather late program on Thursday. People are high on the Cornhuskers for a multitude of reasons, but watch out for the Bearcats this year, which will be better offensively than expected.

UTSA at #19 Texas A&M (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)

The Aggies should win this game, but cannot take the Roadrunners lightly. UTSA will be potent on offense this season and is a good test for Mike Elko’s defense.

Utah at UCLA (Saturday, 11 PM ET – FOX)

Things don’t start easily on the Utes’ revenge tour, with a trip to California to face former Pac-12 foe UCLA. Nico Iamaleava was a hot topic in the offseason, but could face a lot of media flak if he struggles against Utah’s tough defense.

Virginia Tech at #13 South Carolina (Sunday, 3 PM ET – ESPN)

It’s not an NFL Sunday quite yet, but there will be enough future pros on the field in this one to make it worth watching. In particular, it will be interesting to see how South Carolina’s rebuild defense fares against Hokies running back Terion Stewart.