2025 NCAAF: Conference USA Preview

Amongst all the conference realignment activity that has taken place across the landscape of the FBS over the past decade and a half, Conference USA has become a case study in how to successfully stay afloat when other ships of similar size and stature around you appear to be sinking.

Long viewed as one of the weaker conferences in college football’s top division, Conference USA has been a steppingstone for many schools to greener pastures and more national recognition. Since 2013, an astounding 16 former football playing members of the conference have left for another FBS league.

However, the conference has continually found a way to survive even under immense pressure to do so. At its peak, Conference USA was a 14-team football league with two divisions. It currently stands at 12 teams, though by 2027 two more programs (Louisiana Tech and UTEP) will be gone.

The conference continues to survive by being a welcome center for teams looking to make the jump up to FBS. At present, half of the 12 teams in Conference USA were not FBS members eight years ago. Two of its members are FBS debutantes in 2025 (Delaware and Missouri State).

Is the quality level poised to be markedly better this season? No, probably not. Other than a handful of teams at the top, they’ll be generally outmatched by the other conferences during non-league play. But the Conference USA flag is still waving, and in today’s climate is an accomplishment in itself.

Teams I Like

Liberty

I was high on Liberty going into last season as well, so much so that they were my pick to represent the Group of Five in the Playoff. It ended up being a massively disappointing campaign for the Flames, and after the season star quarterback Kaidon Salter decided to transfer to Colorado. But even with some major holes to fill on the offensive side, Jamey Chadwell’s squad appears to be the class of Conference USA and should make good on high expectations placed upon them externally.

Defensively, the Flames will be very tough and won’t give up a lot of points. Scoring presumably won’t be an issue for Liberty, either, with Chadwell getting the kind of quarterback he desires to run his offense in Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko. The 6’3”, 200 pound Vasko brings the type of dual threat ability to Lynchburg that should keep the Flames near the top of the country in rushing offense, despite losing lead back Quinton Cooley, who amassed over 2,600 yards on the ground the previous two seasons. If Vasko and a new stable of running backs pan out, Liberty could be in the Playoff conversation late into the regular season.

Middle Tennessee State

It was a rough 2024 for the Blue Raiders, but this season the team returns a lot of talent and I believe in Derek Mason as a program builder. After all, he was relatively successful at what I believe was a much more difficult situation at Vanderbilt. The cupboard was pretty empty for Mason on the defensive side when he arrived prior to last season, and even his expertise wasn’t able to overcome that. This season a lot of defensive assets return and they can’t be much worse on that side of the ball.

Offensively, some skill position players will need to emerge as playmakers, but there is a solid base in an experienced offensive line and one of the best quarterbacks in the conference to throw behind them. Assuming Nicholas Vattiato takes the next step and earns all-conference honors of some sort, the offense should improve similarly to the defense. Combine this with a schedule that avoids title favorites Liberty and Louisiana Tech entirely, and you have a perfect setup for Middle Tennessee State to insert itself into the title conversation as well.

Not High On

Jacksonville State

It will be a massive challenge for the Gamecocks to defend their 2024 conference title. The departure of Rich Rod back to West Virginia brought the expected mass exodus of players via the transfer portal, and as a result this year’s team is going to look a lot different than last season. To some extent the offense will run similarly, but Tyler Huff and Tre Stewart were proven commodities at quarterback and running back and matching their production will be incredibly difficult. Gavin Wimsatt is something of a journeyman at quarterback and it’s hard to tell whether Cam Cook can be as successful behind an even more inexperienced offensive line than he ran behind at TCU last season.

This young squad will be forced to grow up quickly, with the first three games being at UCF, at home against Liberty and on the road against Georgia Southern. Road trips to Southern Mississippi and Middle Tennessee State await later in the year. Jacksonville State has quickly ascended within the FBS ranks in the relatively short time it has been a part of the division, with a conference title already on its resume within the first two seasons of play. But this team is going to have trouble just making a bowl in 2025.

Players To Watch

Jo’Nathan Silver, Delaware running back

It’s unclear just how ready the Blue Hens are to make the adjustment to the FBS ranks this season, but one player on the offensive side that should have no problem with the uptick in competition is their junior running back. Silver is poised make the leap to being Delaware’s feature back this season after playing a complementary role the previous two seasons.

A burner with breakaway speed, Silver may have been able to pursue a track career if not for deciding to focus on football at the collegiate level. He will improve his numbers drastically this season in both the rushing and receiving categories and may end up as one of the most productive running backs in the league.

Nicholas Vattiato, Middle Tennessee State quarterback

As a full-time starter the previous two seasons for the Blue Raiders, Vattiato is a bit of an anomaly as a guy who has had success but decided not to test the waters in the transfer portal. Since his freshman year the coaching staff at Middle Tennessee State has had confidence in Vattiato, a gunslinger of sorts that can struggle at times with turnovers but tends to make up for it in various ways.

With a better offensive line and more talented running back corps at his expense, Vattiato will be getting some help this year that was lacking in 2024. As a result, his involvement in touchdowns should see an uptick this season, which should also translate to more victories for the Blue Raiders as well.

Maverick McIvor, Western Kentucky quarterback

The Hilltoppers have had a successful history of bringing in high performing quarterbacks from the lower divisions and getting similar production out of them at the FBS level. Tyson Helton is hoping to add McIvor, a transfer from Abilene Christian and previously Texas Tech, to the list of success stories. To help bolster the chances of that, Helton also pulled offensive coordinator Rick Bowie from ACU to handle the same job in Bowling Green.

McIvor was No. 4 in FCS last season with 3,828 yards passing and 30 passing touchdowns. Similar numbers are very possible at Western Kentucky assuming that the new group of receivers expected to carry the load are capable of doing so. Maintaining continuity by hiring Bowie is an interesting play by Helton and I like the decision

Games to Watch (Conference)

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech (October 21)

The Hilltoppers play consecutive games against teams coming off of a bye week (Florida International one week earlier). As a double-digit underdog, Louisiana Tech upset Western Kentucky on the road in 2024. Conference USA has full control of this Tuesday evening, and this is by far the best of the two games being played that night.

Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky (November 15)

A battle between two of the conference’s best signal-callers will take place when Nicholas Vattiato and Maverick McIvor square up. The combined point total in last year’s affair was 70 points, and there isn’t a lot of reason to suggest this year’s total won’t approach or eclipse that.

Liberty at Louisiana Tech (November 22)

Liberty’s conference slate this year looks very manageable, with trips to Florida International and Ruston for this one being the two most difficult on paper. If the Flames find a way to win this one, we may be looking at a team running the table in Conference USA.

Games to Watch (Non-Conference)

Western Kentucky at Toledo (September 6)

If you like offense, then this is can’t miss action. The Hilltoppers and Rockets figure to have two of the most explosive offensive attacks in the G5 ranks and that should be on full display in this one.

Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech (September 20)

This game is likely to pass entirely under the radar of most college football fans, which is a shame since both will be much improved compared to their 2024 campaign. That is what happens, though, when a matchup features a team that finished 1-11 takes on a team that finished 5-8 last season.

James Madison at Liberty (September 20)

The betting favorite to win the Sun Belt takes on the betting favorite to win Conference USA in this marquee G5 non-conference tilt. The winner moves up the list of candidates to take the coveted G5 auto bid to the CFP.

Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)

*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!

Liberty Makes College Football Playoff (+1000)

Though last year’s record doesn’t suggest it, the Flames were very close to having another excellent season in 2024. The bowl game result can effectively be thrown out considering how many players were out for that contest.

This year, Liberty appears in-line to make another run at a Conference USA title and if they get more consistency out of the quarterback position, could be in the Playoff mix as well.

Louisiana Tech Over 5.5 (-175)

If the Bulldogs fare better in close contests this season (five losses in 2024 by less than a touchdown and/or in overtime), they’ll almost certainly be competing for the Conference USA crown.

Vegas does not seem to think similarly, suggesting that Louisiana Tech will have accomplished something simply by qualifying for a bowl game.

Sam Houston State Under 4.5 (+100)

The loss of their head coach from last season, a gutted roster as a result of that and a very difficult non-conference schedule are all signals that it could be a tough year for the Bearkats.

The line seems to agree with this in general, but I think it could go even more poorly than expected.

Predictions

1. Liberty (10-2, [8-0])
2. Middle Tennessee State (9-3, [6-2])
3. Western Kentucky (8-4, [6-2])
4. Louisiana Tech (8-4, [6-2])
5. UTEP (7-5, [5-3])
6. FIU (6-6, [5-3])
7. New Mexico State (7-5, [4-4])
8. Sam Houston State (3-9, [3-5])
9. Jacksonville State (3-9, [2-6])
10. Kennesaw State (2-10, [1-7])
11. Delaware (2-10, [1-7])
12. Missouri State (1-11, [1-7])

Conference Title Game

Middle Tennessee State at Liberty

Champion: Liberty