2026 MLB Preview: National League Season Wins Total Over/Under Predictions

Let’s take a look at the National League.

NL EAST

Philadelphia Phillies – Over 91.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 96-66
Prediction: UNDER; 90 wins

In general, my thought is that they’ll be good enough to make the playoffs for sure. But after losing SP Ranger Suarez, possibly returning a lesser form of Zach Wheeler after Tommy John surgery and possible regression from Bryce Harper/Kyle Schwarber, I don’t hate the under here. It all depends mainly on whether Wheeler comes back just as dominant as he’s been in the past. They still have a lineup of superstars mostly in their prime years, but aging can come quickly (looking at you, Wheeler and JT Realmuto).

In all seriousness, the Phillies are going to be good and they will make the playoffs, but 92 wins is not easy. I’d say bettors are safer with the under than the over here.

Free agents:

OF Max Kepler
Notable acquisitions:

DH Kyle Schwarber (re-signed; 5-year deal)
C J.T. Realmuto (re-signed; 3-year deal)
RP Brad Keller (2-year deal)
OF Adolis García (1-year deal)
RP Jonathan Bowlan (trade with Royals)
RP Kyle Backhus (trade with D-backs)
RP Zach Pop (1-year deal)
UTIL Dylan Moore (MiLB deal)
Notable subtractions:

SP Ranger Suárez (Red Sox)
OF Harrison Bader (Giants)
OF Nick Castellanos (Padres)
RP Matt Strahm (trade with Royals)
RP Jordan Romano (Angels)
RP David Robertson (retired)
SP Walker Buehler (Padres)

New York Mets – Over 89.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 83-79
Prediction: OVER; 90 wins

Another year, another stacked division with talent in the NL East. Last season surprised me a bit with the Mets missing the playoffs to the Reds, but it was the pitching for the Mets that held them out of the postseason. 2026 features the additions of ex-Brewer Freddy Peralta and Devin Williams, and it’s already appearing like a much better roster this year. Although this helps, their rotation and bullpen isn’t what I would call fantastic, but it will be significantly improved.

With the additions of Luis Robert, Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, they’ll have plenty of fun on the offense, too. But at the same time, I must mention who they’re saying “bye-bye” to – notably, Pete Alonso, Closer Edwin Diaz, Brandon Ninmo and Jeff McNeil. Add this to a list of top prospects like Jett Williams, Brandon Sproat, etc. I do kind of like the over, but I’ll stay safe and predict 90 wins.

Free agents:

RP Max Kranick
SP Frankie Montas
OF Jesse Winker
Notable acquisitions:

SS Bo Bichette (3-year deal)
SP Freddy Peralta (trade with Brewers)
OF Luis Robert Jr. (trade with White Sox)
2B Marcus Semien (trade with Rangers)
RP Devin Williams (3-year deal)
2B Jorge Polanco (2-year deal)
RP Luke Weaver (2-year deal)
SP Tobias Myers (trade with Brewers)
OF MJ Melendez (1-year deal)
RP Luis García (1-year deal)
RP Craig Kimbrel (MiLB deal)
OF Mike Tauchman (MiLB deal)
Notable subtractions:

1B Pete Alonso (Orioles)
RP Edwin Díaz (Dodgers)
OF Brandon Nimmo (trade with Rangers)
2B/OF Jeff McNeil (trade with Athletics)
RP Tyler Rogers (Blue Jays)
SS Jett Williams (trade with Brewers)
SP Brandon Sproat (trade with Brewers)
2B Luisangel Acuña (trade with White Sox)
OF Cedric Mullins (Rays)
OF Starling Marte (Royals)
RP Ryan Helsley (Orioles)
RP Gregory Soto (Pirates)
RP Ryne Stanek (Cardinals)
RP Danny Young (Braves)
RP Cooper Criswell (trade with Mariners)
SP Griffin Canning (Padres)
RP Drew Smith (Nationals)

Miami Marlins – Over 73.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 79-83
Prediction: OVER; 75 wins

Considering they overperformed in last year’s projections for final wins, this one is a little tricky. They started off last season with noticeable holes defensively, and quite frankly just lacked game management. They started off 30-45 before hitting a massive run beginning with an eight game winning streak before the All-Star break, and ended the year close to .500. They may have some momentum from last year to build upon as they begin the season. Notably, they lost starting pitchers Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, but also added Pete Fairbanks and signed top prospect Owen Cassie from the Cabrera trade.

They still seem to be the cost-focused club that remains in constant rebuilding mode, but this team can get hot at any point. They are young, have plenty of rising talent, scrappiness and have more to prove from last season’s third place finish in the NL East. I will take the over for Miami to achieve 75 wins this season.

Free agents:

None
Notable acquisitions:

OF Owen Caissie (trade with Cubs)
RP Pete Fairbanks (1-year deal)
INF Christopher Morel (1-year deal)
OF Esteury Ruiz (trade with Dodgers)
SP Chris Paddack (1-year deal)
RP John King (1-year deal)
Notable subtractions:

SP Edward Cabrera (trade with Cubs)
SP Ryan Weathers (trade with Yankees)
OF Joey Wiemer (trade with Giants)
OF Dane Myers (trade with Reds)
1B Eric Wagaman (trade with Twins)

Atlanta Braves – Over 88.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 76-86
Prediction: UNDER; 85 wins

I was all in on the Braves last season, so take this one with a grain of salt. This is a huge boom or bust team at this point, with injuries typically playing a big factor. They’ll have a healthy Chris Sale back this year, but two projected starting pitchers (Spencer Schwellenbach and Hunter Waldrep) will start the year on the 60 day IL. They’ll be fighting from the start to stay above water until those two return. They added star closer Robert Suarez from the Padres and have a plethora of talent offensively.

Let’s give Acuna a full year of at-bats, Chris Sale one on the mound, Ozzie Albies to come unglued at the plate and rookie sensation Drake Baldwin to keep rising. If all that happens, I still say they don’t win the division, but their max amount of wins would be 90. To be realistic, some injuries are inevitable, so subtract five wins. I land at 85 wins this season.

Free agents:

None
Notable acquisitions:

RP Robert Suarez (3-year deal)
SS Ha-Seong Kim (re-signed, 1-year deal)
OF Mike Yastrzemski (2-year deal)
RP Raisel Iglesias (re-signed; 1-year deal)
UTIL Mauricio Dubón (trade with Astros)
SP Martín Pérez (MiLB deal)
SS Jorge Mateo (1-year deal)
C Jonah Heim (1-year deal)
RP Tyler Kinley (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RP Joel Payamps (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RP Danny Young (1-year deal)
RP Ian Hamilton (1-year deal)
INF Kyle Farmer (MiLB deal)
Notable subtractions:

DH Marcell Ozuna (Pirates)
SP Alek Manoah (Angels)
INF Nick Allen (trade with Astros)
RP Pierce Johnson (Reds)

Washington Nationals – Over 69.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 66-96
Prediction: UNDER; 65 wins

The Nationals are in full rebuild mode, especially with the pitching staff after getting rid of Mackenzie Gore. Their rotation is hands down the worst in the MLB for the 2026 season. There should be at least a bit of excitement about rising stars James Wood and CJ Abrams, but with a team in this position and having lost their best pitcher, it’s not looking good. Their rotation will now feature an aging Miles Mikolas, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli. We’ll see how spring training shakes out for some prospects stepping up into a starting pitching role, but the cupboard isn’t full. I’ll take 65 wins for a prediction on the Nationals.

Free agents:

None
Notable acquisitions:

C Harry Ford (trade with Mariners)
SP Miles Mikolas (1-year deal)
SP Foster Griffin (1-year deal)
SS Gavin Fien (trade with Rangers)
RP Drew Smith (MiLB deal)
Notable subtractions:

SP MacKenzie Gore (trade with Rangers)
RP Jose A. Ferrer (trade with Mariners)
1B Josh Bell (Twins)
3B Paul DeJong (Yankees)

NL CENTRAL

Milwaukee Brewers – Over 87.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 97-65
Prediction: Over; 94 wins

The Brewers play good, fundamental baseball, and although on the lower side of overall payroll, place focus on player development, especially pitching. That’s what they chose to do this offseason again. So with the exiting of Freddy Peralta, the Brewers still have veteran Brandon Woodruff to lead as a strong, stable ace throughout the season, and added plenty of young talent to work in the “lab”. I didn’t love to see 3B Caleb Durbin dealt away, but there should be little concern that the Brewers’ pitching lab will shape SP Kyle Harrison into a star. Overall, the pitching will be good with the replacements for Freddy.

Looking at the offensive side, the Brewers added Luis Rengifo as a utility guy that hits for power and David Hamilton to add more infield depth. I don’t know if the magic of Andrew Vaughn will continue into 2026, but Milwaukee still has Yelich, who while a little past his prime is still good for at least 25 HRs. Additionally, a rising Bryce Turang, fully healthy William Contreras and of course Jackson Chourio form a solid core. I think it’s easy to say the Brewers hit the over again – it’s almost disrespectfully low.

Free agents:

None

Notable acquisitions:

SP Brandon Woodruff (re-signed; accepted qualifying offer)
SS Jett Williams (trade with Mets)
SP Brandon Sproat (trade with Mets)
SP Kyle Harrison (trade with Red Sox)
INF David Hamilton (trade with Red Sox)
RP Angel Zerpa (trade with Royals)
INF Luis Rengifo (1-year deal)
OF Akil Baddoo (1-year deal)
C Gary Sánchez (1-year deal)

Notable subtractions:

SP Freddy Peralta (trade with Mets)
C Danny Jansen (Rangers)
INF Caleb Durbin (trade with Red Sox)
1B Rhys Hoskins (Guardians)
INF Andruw Monasterio (trade with Red Sox)
SP Jose Quintana (Rockies)
RP Shelby Miller (Cubs)
OF Isaac Collins (trade with Royals)
SP Tobias Myers (trade with Mets)
RP Nick Mears (trade with Royals)
SP/RP Erick Fedde (White Sox)
SP Jordan Montgomery (Rangers)

Chicago Cubs – Over 89.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 92-70
Prediction: OVER; 92 wins

The Cubs are back with another flurry of big signings following last year’s Kyle Tucker addition. This season the big market hit is Alex Bregman for 5 years. Along with Bregman comes Edward Cabrera, a rising star pitcher from the Marlins. The Cubs are leaguewide known for their fantastic defense, which includes CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner and the always reliable SS Dansby Swanson. They field an all-around consistent hitting lineup with many of those pieces able to hit the long ball consistently as well. They’ll definitely be a team capable of pushing the other top teams in the NL and will be neck-and-neck with the Brewers again in 2026.

We’ll see how the rest of the pitching staff shapes out, as they do have some holes in their relief pitching rotation like in 2025. Starting pitching shouldn’t be a problem for them, especially with the addition of Cabrera and the highly anticipated return of Justin Steele. Overall, I’ll take the over with 92 wins predicted.

Free agents:

1B Justin Turner

Notable acquisitions:

3B Alex Bregman (5-year deal)
SP Edward Cabrera (trade with Marlins)
SP Shota Imanaga (re-signed; accepted qualifying offer)
RP Hunter Harvey (1-year-deal)
RP Phil Maton (2-year deal)
RP Caleb Thielbar (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RP Shelby Miller (2-year deal)
RP Hoby Milner (1-year deal)
RP Jacob Webb (1-year deal)
1B Tyler Austin (1-year deal)
OF Michael Conforto (MiLB deal)
Notable subtractions:

OF Kyle Tucker (Dodgers)
RP Andrew Kittredge (trade with Orioles)
RP Brad Keller (Phillies)
UTIL Willi Castro (Rockies)
SP Michael Soroka (D-backs)
RP Drew Pomeranz (Angels)
RP Taylor Rogers (Twins)
RP Eli Morgan (Royals)
OF Owen Caissie (trade with Marlins)
1B Carlos Santana (D-backs)
SP Aaron Civale (Athletics)
RP Ryan Brasier (Rangers)

Cincinnati Reds – Over 82.5 Wins
2025 Season Record – 83-79
Prediction: OVER; 84 wins

I gotta admit, it was cool to see the Reds make it to the playoffs over the Mets, but it was pretty much just the Mets beating themselves rather than the Reds taking it from them. I like the Reds starting rotation, with Andrew Abbott and Hunter Greene leading the way and Nick Lodolo filling in. This will be their strong suit again in 2026, barring the health of the starting rotation.

I think we’re all waiting for Elly De La Cruz to break out into an MVP season, and they absolutely need it this season. The cool thing about Elly in 2025 was his reliability – he played all 162 games last season! Eugenio Suarez returning should be fun, and with his experience already in Cincinnati, I wouldn’t worry about him hitting under 30 HRs this season in the hitter-friendly ballpark. One more player I’m excited about is Sal Stewart, who as a rookie with only 55 ABs, hit five HRs. I don’t think I love the over here, but I’ll go with it for the Reds at 84 wins this year.

Free agents:

SP Zack Littell
SP Wade Miley
Notable acquisitions:

3B Eugenio Suárez (1-year deal)
OF JJ Bleday (1-year deal)
RP Emilio Pagán (re-signed; 2-year deal)
RP Pierce Johnson (1-year deal)
RP Caleb Ferguson (1-year deal)
RP Brock Burke (3-team trade with Angels, Rays)
OF Dane Myers (trade with Marlins)
1B Nathaniel Lowe (MiLB deal)
Notable subtractions:

INF Gavin Lux (3-team trade with Angels, Rays)
OF Austin Hays (White Sox)
3B/OF Miguel Andujar (Padres)
RP Brent Suter (Angels)
RP Scott Barlow (Athletics)
SP/RP Nick Martinez (Rays)

St. Louis Cardinals – Over 73.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 78-84
Prediction: UNDER; 70 wins

The Cardinals appear to be in full rebuild mode, and it’s about time. They parted ways with star Nolan Arenado, as well as Wilson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and SP Sony Gray. With all that turnover, it’s time for the Cards to give the young talent coming up a chance to prove itself. Pitching should be below average based on the acquisitions that I see, so it’s all up to what these young hitters have.

The Red Sox provided the Cardinals a lot of young, talented pitching in the trade for Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray. I could see that panning out to be a great trade for St. Louis. But for now, the rotation is just bad, and it’s going to take time to rebuild. I’ll say 70 wins this season.

Free agents:

None
Notable acquisitions:

SP Dustin May (1-year deal)
INF Ramón Urías (1-year deal)
SP Brandon Clarke (trade with Red Sox)
SP Richard Fitts (trade with Red Sox)
SP Hunter Dobbins (trade with Red Sox)
SP Jurrangelo Cijntje (3-team trade with Mariners, Rays)
RP Ryne Stanek (1-year deal)
C Yohel Pozo (re-signed; 1-year deal)
Notable subtractions:

1B Willson Contreras (trade with Red Sox)
SP Sonny Gray (trade with Red Sox)
3B Nolan Arenado (trade with D-backs)
INF Brendan Donovan (3-team trade with Mariners, Rays)
SP Miles Mikolas (Nationals)
RP John King (Marlins)

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over 75.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 71-91
Prediction: OVER; 80 wins

The Pirates are trying their best to make a splash this year. Additions Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Marcel Ozuna and Jake Mangum should all fit in nicely to give a boost to a below average hitting team in almost all metrics last season. Hopefully it will spark some motivation with their current hitting to pick it up a bit, especially the talented Oneil Cruz, who in my mind could easily hit 35 HRs with his swing speed.

Pitching, on the other hand, was really good in 2025 for the Pirates, primarily thanks to Cy Young winner Paul Skenes. If they can get a healthy Jared Jones back midseason, they have potential to make a late season push. Since they had 71 wins last season and I expect the hitting to pick up in 2026, there’s a way higher ceiling for the Pirates and I think even 80 wins wouldn’t be out of the question.

Free agents:

DH Andrew McCutchen
OF Tommy Pham
Notable acquisitions:

2B Brandon Lowe (3-team trade with Rays, Astros)
1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn (2-year deal)
DH Marcell Ozuna (1-year deal)
SP José Urquidy (1-year deal)
RP Gregory Soto (signed 1-year deal)
OF Jake Mangum (3-team trade with Rays, Astros)
RP Mason Montgomery (3-team trade with Rays, Astros)
OF Jhostynxon Garcia (trade with Red Sox)
Notable subtractions:

SP Johan Oviedo (trade with Red Sox)
SP Mike Burrows (3-team trade with Rays, Astros)
RP Colin Holderman (Guardians)

NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers – Over 102.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 93 – 69
Prediction: UNDER; 98 wins

I mean, it’s the Dodgers. They prioritize resting their players in the regular season to have them at their healthiest for the playoffs, and they’re one of the only teams to be able to enjoy this luxury. Part of the reason why they prioritize resting is because they have great players, but they’re aging. The 36-year-old Freddie Freeman and 34-year-old Max Muncy are key players that require their rest to play at their best. But again, I don’t worry about the age, as they have plenty of talent to fill in throughout the year should there be any injuries.

Kyle Tucker for three years is a nice piece to add, and Edwin Diaz to close the door is also solid. I think this is a highly inflated over/under and would be happy to take the under here. I’ll say the Dodgers win 98 games this season.

Free agents:

SP Tony Gonsolin
RP Michael Kopech

Notable acquisitions:

OF Kyle Tucker (4-year deal)
RP Edwin Díaz (3-year deal)
SS Miguel Rojas (re-signed; 1-year deal)
UTIL Kiké Hernández (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RP Evan Phillips (re-signed; 1-year deal)

Notable subtractions:

RP Kirby Yates (Angels)
RP Anthony Banda (trade with Dodgers)
OF Michael Conforto (Cubs)

San Diego Padres – Over 85.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 90-72
Prediction: OVER; 87 wins

San Diego’s big news in the offseason was the loss of Dylan Cease without adding anything similar in value. Although Cease didn’t put up great numbers last season (4.55 ERA), he still had 215 strikeouts on the year. Now, even without Cease their pitching looks solid, especially in the bullpen with Mason Miller (added midseason 2025).
Offensively, they’ll still feature Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Hunter Merrill. But they lose Luis Arraez, the league leader in total hits in 2025. I don’t expect the Padres to increase their wins from last season to 2026, but I do expect them to get above 86 wins. Anywhere in that range I’d be happy to take, so I’ll call the over at 87 wins.

Free agents:

SP Nestor Cortes
C Elias Díaz
INF Jose Iglesias

Notable acquisitions:

SP Michael King (re-signed; 3-year deal)
INF Sung-Mun Song (4-year deal)
3B/OF Miguel Andujar (1-year deal)
SP Kyle Hart (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RP Ty Adcock (1-year deal)
RP Daison Acosta (1-year deal)
SP Triston McKenzie (MiLB deal)
SP Griffin Canning (1-year deal)
OF Nick Castellanos (1-year deal)
1B Ty France (MiLB deal)
SP Germán Márquez (1-year deal)
SP Walker Buehler (MiLB deal)

Notable subtractions:

SP Dylan Cease (Blue Jays)
1B/2B Luis Arraez (Giants)
RP Robert Suarez (Braves)
1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn (Pirates)

San Francisco Giants – Over 81.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 81-81
Prediction: OVER; 85 wins

I like this Giants team, featuring a solid starting rotation and plenty of bats to push them into a higher win bracket in 2026. I feel that overall they just underperformed last season, and the reason for this is that the newer additions (Willy Adames, Rafael Devers) weren’t accustomed to Oracle Park yet and how to achieve higher success at the plate.

I think Luis Arraez will absolutely lock in with the Giants this season as his strength is putting the ball in play. With more room to work with at Oracle, he’ll see some increased numbers. In addition, the starting rotation featuring Logan Webb and Robbie Ray should be able to maintain themselves as a top 10 starting rotation in the league. Overall, I like the over here for 85 wins.

Free agents:

1B Wilmer Flores
RP Joey Lucchesi
C Tom Murphy

Notable acquisitions:

OF Harrison Bader (2-year deal)
1B/2B Luis Arraez (1-year deal)
SP Tyler Mahle (1-year deal)
SP Adrian Houser (2-year deal)
RP Sam Hentges (1-year deal)
RP Jason Foley (1-year deal)
OF Will Brennan (1-year deal)

Notable subtractions:

SP Justin Verlander (Tigers)
C Andrew Knizner (Mariners)

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over 79.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 80-82
Prediction: OVER; 82 wins

The Snakes have struggled finding pitching to fill the void since their World Series run in 2023. They took a shot with ex-Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, and if he could stay healthy, they’d have a true ace to help fill said void.

Hitting is not the problem. It has been fun to watch the rise of Corbin Caroll and now Geraldo Perdomo in combination with the veteran Ketel Marte. I don’t think the pitching they added will solve the consistency issue, but they did get Merrill Kelly back to help. I’ll stick with the over here and go for an 82-win season for the Snakes, which hinges on their hitting talent.

Free agents:

RP Jalen Beeks

Notable acquisitions:

3B Nolan Arenado (trade with Cardinals)
SP Zac Gallen (re-signed; 1-year deal)
SP Merrill Kelly (2-year deal)
SP Michael Soroka (1-year deal)
1B Carlos Santana (1-year deal)
C James McCann (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RP Paul Sewald (1-year deal)
RP Taylor Clarke (1-year deal)
RP Kade Strowd (trade with Orioles)
SP Josh Grosz (trade with Rockies)
RP Joe Ross (MiLB deal)

Notable subtractions:

OF Jake McCarthy (trade with Rockies)
SS Blaze Alexander (trade with Orioles)
RP Kyle Backhus (trade with Phillies)

Colorado Rockies – Over 54.5 Wins
2025 Season Record: 43-119
Prediction: OVER; 60 wins

The Rockies can only go up from here (rock bottom). They added some veteran pitching to the starting rotation this season that will help, as well as a solid hitter and defender in right field, Jake McCarthy. In 2025, Rockies were not only bad, but also unlucky. They had a rising star duo in Michael Toglia and Brenton Doyle, which combined for over 70 HRs in 2024, and they just did not rise to the occasion in 2025.

Unfortunately for the Rockies, top prospect Kyle Teel will be sidelined for the start of the season with a grade 2 hamstring strain, but they are hopeful that he will come back early into the season. I predict this team will surprise us and rebound a bit this year, kind of like the White Sox did after their horrific 2024 season. I’ll take the over for the Rockies to achieve 60 wins this season.

Free agents:

None

Notable acquisitions:

UTIL Willi Castro (2-year deal)
SP Michael Lorenzen (1-year deal)
SP Jose Quintana (1-year deal)
SP Tomoyuki Sugano (1-year deal)
OF Jake McCarthy (trade with D-backs)
2B Edouard Julien (trade with Twins)
RP Pierson Ohl (trade with Twins)

Notable subtractions:

SS Orlando Arcia (Twins)
1B Michael Toglia (Reds)
INF Kyle Farmer (Braves)
RP Angel Chivilli (trade with Yankees)
SP Germán Márquez (Padres)